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Expected value and implied probability is one of the most important two concepts in betting. Expected value is the predicted percentage of an outcome. The odds a book gives you on a bet is directly correlated with implied probability. If we bump our expected value (EV) up against the implied probability, and our expected value is higher than the book, we've found a +EV bet.Odds can be easily converted to implied probability using the following formula: 1 / Decimal book odds = %
Finding the best odds available can be the difference between a +EV /-EV bet. Let's look at a specific example. Overall probability of a coin flip landing heads or tails is roughly 50%. Odds would be roughly 1.9 (-110). If you bet this 1,000 times, you would lose money. This is -EV. If I offered you 2.2 (+120) odds on heads and you bet this 1,000 times, you would be profitable. This is +EV.
We find odds where a favorite is priced as a dog. We bet on huge dogs that should win a higher percentage than priced. These odds shift quickly, which is why it's so important to know the picks when the happen!
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