NFL Betting Edge Week 17 Value Bets: The Final Countdown...to the Playoffs

MG
Dec 28, 2019
6 min read

Congratulations to those who won their finals this week, and if you’re still playing fantasy football this week, change your league rules -- because Week 17 sucks out loud with so many teams having nothing to play for, as well as other teams saving their players for the playoffs. Upside to this week: a lot of good value bets to play on -- and, even better, all the games take place on Sunday.

Let’s get into it:

Bengals at Browns -- My Pick: Bengals ML @ 2.35 (2.25+) [1u] on Betonline

Has there been a team that busted harder than the Browns? None can come to mind, given the Super Bowl expectations Odell Beckham put on the Browns in the preseason. Oddsshark says the Browns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against Cincinnati and have failed to cover the spread in six straight road games. While it’s concerning that Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 home games, I believe, with the 1st Round Pick already secured, Andy Dalton shows his best skills in an effort to pad his resume for his next employer and delivers the win at home in his final game as a Bengal.

Falcons at Buccaneers -- My Pick: Falcons ML @ 2.05 (1.95+) [1u] on Bookmaker

Should be noted: we got in on the above line earlier this week, though the game is now a pick’em. With Godwin and Evans done for the season, his receiving options leaves Jameis Winston to throw to a bunch of guys who can’t catch, if you watched last week. So it kind of shocks me that they’re the slight favorites in this tilt. The Falcons are now 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and their defense has allowed 120 rushing yards or less and 300 passing yards or less in six of its last seven games, according to Oddsshark. I should note, however, it was the Bucs that was the one team during that stretch to eclipse both, running for 133 yards and passing for 313 in a 35-22 win at Atlanta in Week 12 (notably with Godwin and Evans healthy). Interestingly, Oddsshark says the over is 11-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 13 games and the over is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 7 games against Atlanta. Based on a lack of options for Winston in this one, I think the Falcons close out the season with a W.

Eagles at Giants -- My Pick: Giants ML @ 2.75 (2.5+) [1u] on Betonline

I bet the Eagles last week, which went against consensus and public. This week I am doing it again the Giants win at home, and here’s why: Danny Dimes, Saquon Barkley, and Sterling Shepard are fully healthy and, while they were facing Washington’s atrocious defense last week, Philly’s isn’t much better -- especially against the pass, ranking 14th to last. Carson Wentz has made miracles happen this season, but with hardly any wideouts to throw to, even against the Giants pretty bad secondary, and with Zach Ertz out, he’s going to have a tough go. According to The Action Network 58% of bets are on the Eagles right now, and to me, that says that there is too much trust in a team that simply doesn’t deserve it.

49ers at Seahawks -- My Pick: Seahawks ML @ 2.54 (2.44+) [1u] on Betonline

We’re going back to it. One last time in the regular season: the Russell Wilson Factor delivers for us again. Injuries are stacking up on both sides of this one, with the Seahawks losing Chris Carson and CJ Procise for the rest of the year due to a hip fracture and broken arm respectively, and as a result, Beast Mode is back! Oddsshark states that the Seahawks head into the final week 11-4 SU but one of the riskiest ATS bets at 7-7-1, while the 49ers are 12-3 SU and 8-6-1 ATS this season. Both teams have a lot riding on this, because if San Fran wins, they’re the NFC division champion, with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It’s a bit more complicated for Seattle to get the same advantage with a W, but they would be NFC West Champions. History puts Wilson and the Hawks backs against the wall, as the 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games after consecutive home games, and the Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Where I come down on Seattle pulling this off is this: the 49ers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games versus the Seahawks.

Raiders at Broncos -- My Pick: Raiders ML @ 2.6 (2.5+) [1u] on Betonline

This is another crazy one, because the Raiders, when they win, will need the Texans, Colts, and Ravens to do the same, and then they’re in the playoffs. Certainly a lot to ride on, but they’re not dead yet, and reason to believe that they’ll play hard in this one. Oddsshark says that Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games, while Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games. The biggest concern is that Denver is 4-11 SU and ATS in its last 15 games vs divisional opponents, and that’s where I believe that Gruden and the Raiders come through in the clutch, pulling victory from the jaws of defeat.

Dolphins at Patriots -- My Pick: Patriots -16.5 @ 1.909 (1.85+) [1u] on Bovada

Remember guys, Darth Hoodie will make the Patriots play all 60 minutes of football, as a win will lock up the 2nd seed in the playoffs. Oddsshark notes that the Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in its past 7 games at New England, and 6-16 ATS in its last 22 divisional road games. Meanwhile, New England is 22-1 SU and 17-6 ATS in its last 23 at home. Only 38% of bets right now are on the Patriots, and I secretly think that while Ryan Fitzpatrick has performed well, in fact really well, of late, a collapse game is coming. The Patriots will take away their best weapon in DeVante Parker, forcing him to other less talented options. But, if we’ve learned anything over Fitzmagic’s career it’s that he loves forcing the ball in places he shouldn’t...leading to at least one, if not more, interceptions. The Patriots defense, working off turnovers alone, should cover this spread.

Bears at Vikings -- My Pick: Bears -3.5 @ 1.99 (1.9+) [1u] on Betonline

The Vikings have nothing to play for with the playoffs already being locked up as the 6th Seed. There are unconfirmed twitter rumors from Vikings beat reporters that the team is already considering sitting many of their star players, including Captain Kirk. According to Oddsshark Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Minnesota Vikings and 3-0 SU in their last three meetings as well. I was already leaning the Bears to begin with, even if starters were playing, but now with the high likelihood of them sitting, I see no issue with the Bears covering.

Packers at Lions -- My Pick: Packers -12.5 @ 1.96 (1.9+) [1u] on Betonline

Oddsshark reports that the Packers are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games against Detroit after going 19-4 SU and 16-7 ATS against the Lions in their previous 23 meetings. All of this is, of course, with Matthew Stafford under center for the Lions, and that matters a lot. Detroit is 1-9 SU and ATS over its last 10 games, including a current losing streak of eight straight games. Obviously the Packers won’t lose this one, the question is can they cover? Green Bay is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games, while Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs the NFC North. Detroit’s defense is...bad, giving up 31 passing touchdowns on the season. That alone gives me confidence that the Pack will win in a rout.

Cowboys at Washington - My Pick: Cowboys -12.5 @ 1.909 (1.85+) [1u] on Betonline

59% of bets are on the Skins right now with, and I guess I can understand with the spread being so big, but they’ve also declared a number of notable starters Haskins, McLaurin, Moreau, and Collins out for this one. Let’s be real, Washington has nothing to play for, and by laying over, they lock up the 2nd pick in the draft. Dallas has everything riding on this, because if the Eagles lose (which I believe happens), they’re in the playoffs and Jason Garrett probably keeps his job. Oddsshark reports that Washington is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games vs the NFC East, where Dallas is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last 6 home games vs the NFC East. Zeke comes alive in this one, following in Saquon’s footsteps last week, by rushing for over 100 and the ‘Boys cover.

One additional note: I am on the Texans moneyline if DeShaun Watson starts. I have not seen confirmation that he is, which is why I haven’t officially tipped it. Provided he starts, I find it hard to believe that the Titans can win, let alone cover 6 points.

Good night, and good luck!

Mike G. | www.plusevsports.com