2/22/19 - NHL Daily Review and Predictions

Andy Jung
Feb 22, 2019
2 min read

News and notes

Our very own u/sippy47 will be on stream with me tomorrow at 10am EST, mark your calendars and set your alarms. Going to talk everything from how he became the one of the most respected cappers in this sub, look behind the scenes on his he makes his selections, talk the Saturday slate, and much more! Should be a lot of fun, we've been planning this out for a bit now.

Twitch.tv/plusEV_Sports

My automatic odds page is broken right now so the Daily Edge will only update with goalie changes. The odds I put in there now are not going to change as the day goes on. You can still utilize the model probabilities and required odds that are listed to help with your picks today. I am not going to post the table here any more because it's a PIA. To find this sheet, make you way to our website: NHL Daily Edge.

Yesterday

WTF man. We literally lost in a shootout by 1 goal in our 3.26 odds banger. I feel really good though, being on the side of the Sabres there, 100% a +EV bet with our model finding a 39.67% probability versus the books 29.96%.

The Kings also couldn't pull it off for us on a late comeback attempt. We had them set with a 43.39% probability versus the books 32.88%, so solid pick nonetheless.

Didn't get to see the Caps game but pretty solid dog win there @ 2.52 odds.

Today

The model has an edge on 2 dogs today.

Ottawa Senators - Quick Hits

OG model has a 40.56% probability, new model looking at a surprising 52.77% for a blended probability of 46.66% compared to the books 36.67%. Nice 0.52 blended edge, all over this one. Our required odds for this match is 2.44 to maintain a 0.10 edge and current odds are 2.66. Kelly criterion tells us to take this at 0.96u.

Anaheim Ducks - Quick Hits

OG model has this one at 42.09%, new model set at 38.71% for a blended probability of 40.40% which is a 0.66 edge over the books 30.99%. Look, a few weeks ago I would literally laugh at my face and try to fix the model but the Ducks have started turning things around and actually have a 3.60% chance of making playoffs. Friggin nuts. KC tells us to take this guy for 0.92u.

Picks