2/26/19 - NHL Daily Edge

Andy Jung
Feb 26, 2019
2 min read

69-69 | +18.26u, 13.13% ROI | Avg. Odds 2.36

Yesterday

Tough break with 2 of our picks. The Kings (+274) and the Oilers (+218) held in strong all the way until getting ousted by 1 goal each in a shootout. These were solid bets and I would bet these 10/10 times again.

This brings me back to explaining our system, especially since we're on a losing streak and people have been questioning what I've been posting.

The concept of plus EV isn't about picking winners, it's about finding edges. If someone offered you +110 odds on a coin flip landing on heads, you should bet that 100% of the time, as a coin flip is virtually a 50/50 and you're getting favorable odds or a 0.10 edge over the 50/50 expected outcome.

The same goes for how we utilize the model. We take the odds probability presented to us from the book vs. the model and bet our biggest edges. Because of this process, we don't need to have a 52.4% win record to be profitable (see record, we're officially 69-69 but are +18.26u).

News and Updates

Making a minor tweak to both my selection process and my posting format. By testing the model probability to the books vigless odds, I have eliminated a number of picks that we have a good edge, and how we're currently looking at it.

I will now post the model W% versus the books implied probability per the odds I got the bet at for further understanding on my picks and why.

I super dialed down the model W% on the Sens with all the changes. I actually added an entire +100 to their probability and feel it's value but very small. I broke Kelly Criterion on this pick because betting 0.1 units feels weird to me and I really like the value here.

As always, stay disciplined and BOL☘️

-u/azndy | plusEV Sports

www.plusEVsports.com | @plusEV_Sports | Twitch

Los Angeles Kings ML (3.24 > 2.73) - [0.84u] | Model Prob: 36.66% vs. Book Prob: 30.86%

Ottawa Senators ML (3.64 > 3.55) - [0.25u] | Model Prob: 28.17% vs. Book Prob: 27.47%

Dallas Stars ML (2.75 > 2.32) - [1.07u] | Model Prob: 43.18% vs. Book Prob: 36.36%