Huge edge for Saturday
- Andy Jung
- Feb 2, 2019
- 3 min read
So yesterday sucked, like really bad. The day before that sucked too. I don't like February. I made some minor tweaks last night to the model. I got a good nights rest, drank some bullet proof coffee, and got to work this morning. I'm turning this ship around today.
The model seems pretty spot on with many of the games today but has some really interesting edges that I needed to look into. As of now, I only locked in two of these picks because the odds are completely flipped on my model. Now one must pray that the projected goalies hold true.
Don't forget about the 15 mBTC giveaway, literally free money. 3 days left and only takes 1 minute to enter. Winner will have their BTC transferred to their Nitrogensports.eu account. Check out our Twitter for more details! @plusEV_Sports
Lightning (1.6) vs. Rangers (2.49)
TB pulled off a shootout win by a single goal last night against the Islanders in their 2nd game on the road. B2B, this team is 3-2 and boosts an impressive 7-3 record while in enemy territory. The Rangers seem to love their games after a day off, sitting at 17-12, which is where the first minor model advantage comes into play.
While the Rangers don't have the best recent record at home, they have played extremely close and have proven the ability to take down elite teams. They had a terrible start to January, losing 5 straight, but bounced back since then going 5-2.
The major advantage all comes down to goaltending and shot conversion. If Louis Domingue starts, the Rangers take a pretty sizeable edge. On top of that, they have a pretty high medium threat shot percentage where Domingue has struggled the most, saving significantly less than most.
The model has this game capped at Tampa Bay (2.49) vs. New York (1.67), which is a gap too sizeable to not bet.
New York Rangers ML (2.49 > 1.87) - 1u
Blackhawks (2.53) vs. Wild (1.58)
Next up on the slate, the Hawks travel to Minnesota to play the Wild. Both teams are B2B with opposite results. The Hawks now boost a 3 game winning streak and absolutely stomped the Sabres last night, capitalizing on tons of mistakes. The Wild had a 3 game streak that was broken last night by the Stars. Praise be the Stars, my 1 of 2 wins last night.
My models edge comes down goalies. Chicago's Corsi shot to save is against Alex Stalock, praying he starts, is significantly better than Minnesota's against Collin Delia. On top of that, Delia is saving 99.09% of medium and low threat shots against Stalock's 93.22%.
All-in, the model has this game capped at Chicago (1.62) vs. Wild (2.62). Pretty nuts if you ask me, but I have to #TrustTheProcess
Chicago Blackhawks ML (2.53) - 1u
Outside of the anomalies, the model likes the Blues over the Jackets - capping them as favorites and currently priced as underdogs.
It also gives a decent edge to the Panthers over the Golden Knights but that is a skip for me due to unknowns with the trades they made yesterday.
It loves the Senators at home - my notes on this game reading the model is simple: both teams are pretty dookie.
Finally, a skip for me at current odds, the model gives the Leafs a huge advantage over the Penguins.
Today's Model Locks:
St Louis Blues ML (2.36 > 1.99) - 1u
Ottawa Senators ML (1.8 > 1.67) - 1u
New York Rangers ML (2.49 > 1.87) - 1u
Chicago Blackhawks ML (2.53 > 1.82) - 1u
As always, stay disciplined and BOL☘️
-Andy
Comments