IEM Katowice Main Qualifier Predictions

Welcome to the IEM Katowice Main Qualifier Predictions.

In this post we will try to give you a good overview of the first part of the tournament called "Challenger Stage".

source: liquidpedia

More info about all participating teams and detailed information about the tournament structure can be found at: https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Intel_Extreme_Masters/Season_XIII/World_Championship

To give you an idea of the strenght of each team we will try to have a short look at their recent performance and mappool and try to come up with a seeding. In a seperate post we will then recommend bets for the first round of the tournament.

#1 fnatic

fnatic is one of the legendary brands in csgo and thats why a lot of weight lies on their shoulders to make it out of this stage. Since the addition of twist and the young talent brollan in october fnatic seem to have found their mojo again.

fnatic hltv ranking development

They have been practicing at the event-location for the last 2 weeks. Altough we havent seen them play a offical match for almost a month now we can assume they gonna be well prepared. Other than rest of the top teams in this phase they most likely wont have much problems with unkown playstyles from competition (chinese or CIS teams) - most parts of the team have played on international level and have seen their fair share of crazy asian plays.

To give us a feeling for their map-pool we can have a look at their pick/ban stats but we should take this with a grain of salt, they might have prepared some suprises for their opponents within the last month.

fnatics pick/ban stats in officals

#2 NRG Esports

Secretly everyone expected them to choke againat the NA Minor and not make it to this stage but they showed some solid counterstrike and qualified without any problems. They play a solid set-up style that is build around their awper Cerq. This helps them a lot against lesser skilled and/or structured teams but if their starplayer has an off-game they have a hard time vs equal opposition.

Their mappool also helps them in the best-of-three phase of the tournament (all elimination- or advancement-matches) since they play maps like nuke or inferno which are permabans for some of the other teams.

Because they play american competition most of the time, in a best-of-one they could have problems vs a team with strong fragging power and an unfamiliar or no system at all (tyloo, furia)

#3 ENCE

Ence probably plays the "most attractive" counterstrike at this stage. They manage to play a pretty aggressive style while still staying structured an and rotating at the right time. Especially on train CT-side there they are top-notch when it comes to utilizing their AWP(s).

Their mappool also looks solid and they should not have much problems in the best-of-three phase vs lower seeded teams. In a best-of-one they could drop a map to a team with less structured playstyle (spirit, furia, avangar).

#4 Cloud9

One of the biggest suprises of last year was the fact that, this team consisting of two demotivated NA major winners and three misfits europe imports, could actually do some solid damage to tier1 and tier2 teams.

Cloud9 will be playing will zellsis instead of golden, who has been sitting out because of health issues for a while now. Eventhough they have been bootcamping in katowice for the last weeks this might hurt them a bit if they didn't find time to work on their weak mappool.

If they had time to work on this they are for sure one of the best teams in this stage and are most likely to qualify.

Because of their recent overperfermance we might get some good odds betting against them when they meet more structured oppositon (like ENCE) or a new playstyle (like Avangar).

#5 Vitality

Vitality, team of the french s1mple (zywoo), has been boosting their confidence by plowing through online tournaments and leagues the last few weeks.

Looking at their stats they seem to have a wide mappol but it should be taken into account that they play a lot of the low-tier opponents.

All in all Vitality end up in our top5-list but are the team that are most likely to struggle in a best-of-three vs another top5 team. They should not have much problems handling the CIS-teams but could lose a best-of-one if zywoo has an off-game.

#6 NIP

It has been quite around NIP since their apearance in december at BLAST Lisbon where they showed they still can compete top teams like Navi and FaZe.

What is worrying abut them is the fact that they didnt not bootcamp at the location like most of the other teams and we havent heard much about their preparation - so there is a slight chance of them having prepared too light. Because of this reason and their weak mappool they end up not making it into our top5.

#7 Avangar

CIS gods, forged through low-tier online counterstrike. These guys have been grinding it out in every online league available and have been improving constantly which enabled them to show a very strong game at the CIS minor.

Their online experience should help them versus lower tier teams while their wide mappool should help them finding a good map versus strong teams. If they dont have to play a top5-seeded team in a best-of-three they should qualify.

Avangar will be our seed #7.

#8 FURIA

Furia impressed within the last few month but they mostly rely on their opponents not being able to counter their aggresive playstyle. They will be a good bet in a best-of-one versus middle-of-the-pack teams who are not very well structured (G2, Renegades) or also rely on agression themselves (Vitality, NIP) but might face problems when it comes to a best-of-three.

#9 Vega Squadron

Probably the biggest Questionmark in the tournament. They played five maps since the minor and lost four of them to lowtier opponents like Superjymy.

So one might think that would make them end up at the bottom of our list but this team has already shown in the past that they are capable of showing up when it matters and they seem to be compfortable on a lot of maps. In the bo1-phase of the tournament they can do some damage even to higher seeded teams but they might get into trouble in a best-of-three where solid teams (like ENCE or fnatic) have time to adjust to them.

Thats why the skwa will be sneaking in our top10 and will be our 9th seed.

#10 G2

Same story like with every french team in the history of CSGO. From time to time they show that they can play solid counterstrike but there is a huge gap between the communites expecations for this brand and what the lineup can actually deliver on. Shox and kennyS seem to be finding back to new motivation and individual form since the addition of two 3DMax players and their coach.

Unfortunately their latest showing in the IEM Sydney Qualifier revealed some massiv leaks in their system and communication on all maps which might cost them a best-of-one even facing a weaker team.

This together with there weak mappool makes them end up at a controversial 10th place of our seeding but they might still be a good bet in a best-of-one ond dust2, even versus higher seeded teams.

#11 Spirit

Spirit have a shaky mappool, with only mirage being really good for them, which will make the best-of-three phase very hard for this team but their very strong t-sides can help them win a best-of-one here and there even versus higher seeded teams (ENCE, Renegades, NRG).

#12 Renegades

Eventhough they picked up some fresh australians (and NZ) this team has been far from impressive.

While on paper having everything to win they seem to be pretty inconsistent - dropping best-of-ones left and right to lesser teams one day and winning to cloud9 the other.

According to their social media they also have been bootcamping in Katowice.

Their map-stats might be a bit skewed because they play australian competition from time to time.

The australians will be our 12th seed but it seems like bookies and the public rate them a bit higher so it might be a good idea to bet them as underdogs vs teams in our top10 (Avangar, furia).

#13 TYLOO

We have not seen anything from this team since the addition of summer and attacker but we can be pretty sure they still struggle with communication issues because of the fact that they could not find one language that everybody in the team proefficently speaks.

We wont even take a look at their stats because its a completly new team but in the past this team has shown that they are able to overcome their issues on single maps by relying on gamesense and crazy aim.

They might be a good underdog bet in the best-of-one phase vs lesser structured teams (g2, furia) but still end up on place 13 of our seeding.

#14 Grayhound

All in all a worse renegades which makes even more mistakes and has less firepower. They didnt make it through the minor as easy as expected. Even if they have been bootcamping in Katowice they have no clear edge over any team (maybe apart from ViCi) and are the most likely team to be eliminated 0-3.

#15 Winstrike

Winstrike, the flipsid3 leftovers are going to have a hard time in their opening match against NRG and if we look at their firepower and mappool it will be hard to find many teams they have an edge over. Its a CIS team at the major so they can probably take a map off lesser prepared or unstruchtured teams. (GH, TYLOO, Renegades)

#16 Vici

Vici barely have something we can call mappool and they only made it to this phase through a last chance qualifier by beating a North who more so beat themselves.

They are mostlikely not going to win a single map unless the right stars align and they have the game of their lifes while meeting a team unfamiliar with asian opponents.