LEC Week 9 Day 1 Predictions and Analysis

Overall Performance (since 3/1/19): 13-8 | +2.71u | ROI: 33.25% | Avg odds: 2.13

Model Team Ratings

• S-Tier: G2 (442.49)

• A-Tier: Vitality (273.44), Splyce (261.11), Origin (242.69), Fnatic (238.24)

• B-Tier: S04 (174.26), Misfits (170.78)

• RIP-Tier: Excel (34.36), Rogue (-131.39)

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Schalke 04 vs. Origen

S04 have found themselves in quite an interesting situation, especially given the fact that they started the season 5-1, conceding only to the elite G2. They’ve fallen from their, conceding a loss to Origen week 4 in a tight early game which quickly blew open for OG in a commanding 30 minute victory, 13-2 kills OG to S04. OG had red side and perfect objective control with 4 dragons, and a baron, while the struggling S04 managed to crack only 2 towers.

Since then, Momento and Odoamne have struggled to perform while the other lanes have struggled to find consistency and contribute. Last week, the pieces started to fall back together, but is it too late? They look ahead to Friday in must-win situation. If they can take down OG and the (hopefully?) easier match up against Rogue on Saturday, they can find themselves into playoffs.

S04 has a better overall vision and slightly below average objective and gold generation rating versus OG who is above average in all metrics. The model gives S04 a 41.79% win probability against book odds of 36.30% which gives us a playable edge. Given the 0.26 edge, Kelly criterion tells us to take S04 ML (2.65) 0.65u.

Vitality vs. Excel

Not much to say here besides the fact that there’s an edge on this heavily favored match. 88.84% model probability to the books 77.51%. This is a 3.57u @ 1.21 bet based on Kelly criterion.

G2 vs. Fnatic

Interesting few weeks for both teams with G2 basically playing for nothing and not really clicking to Fnatic finding form with a nice 6 game win streak. I don’t see G2 experimenting too much, likely looking to go into their playoff bye with a convincing win over a team they could see again soon. I have to agree with the model ratings, G2 is really good and has a ton of potential as we move past regionals.

The model has a 65% win probability to the books 51.18%. We’re looking at a 2.43u play on G2 ML at 1.86 odds.

Daily Edge Model Plays

• Schalke 04 ML (2.65 > 2.39 vs. Origen ) | Model Probability: 41.79% vs. Book Probability: 36.30% [0.65u]

• Vitality ML (1.21 > 1.13 vs. Excel Esports ) | Model Probability: 88.84% vs. Book Probability: 77.51% [3.57u]

• G2 Esports ML (1.86 > 1.54 vs. Fnatic ) | Model Probability: 65.00% vs. Book Probability: 51.18% [2.43u]