Let Us Give Thanks: NFL Betting Edge Week 13 - Thanksgiving Edition

MG
Nov 28, 2019
5 min read

What am I thankful for? More NFL games to bet on this Thursday.

Yes, I know he's not playing. No, I don't care.

Seriously though, before we get into it, I want to take a moment to speak on the behalf of everyone at PlusEV_Sports. We have a lot to be thankful for this holiday: chief among them, family, friends, and the ability to bet on these games. This past year has been one of growth for the team, our following, and of course our wallets, but none of that matters without family and friends to share this with. That's why we are so thankful for all of you. Without your support, we wouldn't be where we are today. We hope that you will continue to tail our bets, continue to make some money, and laugh at our stupid jokes and snark. From the PlusEV_Sports family to yours, Happy Thanksgiving.

First Course:

Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions - 12:30pm

My Pick: Bears -4.5

It's the Bad v. Awful Thanksgiving Bowl! I know, I can't blame the NFL for scheduling this because they didn't know either team would be circling the drain, but you couldn't find a more unappetizing choice to start off this slate of games for Thanksgiving 2019. Whatever, let's shake it off before the tryptophan kicks and make some money.

Setting the table: Oddsshark tells us that following last week, the Bears are 3-8 ATS, and the Lions are 3-7-1 SU and 4-7 ATS. Further, the Odds-Gods say that the total has gone UNDER in five of the Bears’ last seven road games with an average combined score of 34.0. *Yuck, pass more wine, grandma. I need to get nice and toasty for this match-up.*

So what does this all mean? A crappy Bears offense, though with a very good defense (ranked 4th overall), against a equally bad Lions offense with Jeff Driskel under center, with an even worse defense. Recall that the Bears won 20-13 in Chicago just two weeks ago, but importantly, that was with a healthy Matt Stafford.

This won't be a fun game, but I believe that *if* the Bears play half-way decent football, with David Montgomery getting carries against the 9th worst rush defense and a combination of quick slants route passes to Anthony Miller Band and Allen Swiss Family Robinson, they can score and cover. The Lions offense is nothing without Stafford, so I wouldn't be all that worried about the outcome, unless you get the Mitch Trubisky that showed up in all previous weeks except the last one. You're not going to feel great about it, though chalk it up to the 2nd plate you just finished, take the Bears, and consider the under. (OS: The total has gone UNDER in the Bears’ last 6 games vs the NFC North.)

Important Note: It appears Jeff Driskel will be sitting tomorrow with a hamstring issue, I would #FullSend on this. Who is Jeff's backup you ask? Rookie David Blough. Yeah, I've never heard of him either. Have full confidence in the Bears defense man-handling this rookie.

Prop Bet Considerations:

David Blough Interceptions
Bo Scarborough Anytime Touchdowns
Anthony Miller Receptions
Allen Robinson Yards
David Montgomery Touchdowns

Second Helping:

Buffalo Bills v. Dallas Cowboys - 4:30pm

My Pick: Bills +7

Up for seconds, anyone? No? Well, you're a liar. That deep fried turkey will only last for so long, and there's always room for seconds -- much like football. I have to ask: could the Cowboys look like bigger frauds at this point? Sure, they're favorites in this one by a touchdown, and, if they win this, would be their first against a winning team this season. Kind of shocking, right? I believed that they most definitely won against better teams, but after reading this solidifies my belief my above statement. To be sure, Dak is working hard for that big contract, hip flexes and all, and I think he's earned it.

Want to know an even more shocking stat? CBS Sports reports that the Cowboys have not been a safe bet in Thanksgiving games, as they've gone 1-7 ATS since 2011. Further, they say that the one cover came last year when they beat the Washington 31-23 as a 7-point favorite. That 1-7 mark includes an 0-3 ATS record against AFC teams on Thanksgiving Day since 2011. CBS also says that the Bills have won three of four against NFC teams and are 7-3-1 ATS on the season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. The Bills are also 5-0-1 ATS in their past six November games. They're 8-3 on the season for the first time in 23 years!

The Bills defense is no joke, either. However I don't think Dak and his band of merry men will have much difficulty moving the ball. They're at home and likely pissed at the fact they couldn't pull out a W in New England last week, and the NFL apologies for their tripping calls against them last week. The question becomes to how does Josh Allen fare against a competent Cowboys defense, which is ranked 7th overall on the season. There is a path for the Bills to stay close and win, much like the Jets did a few weeks ago. The Cowboys have only picked off 4 interceptions on the season, and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns. The key to keeping it close is not forcing Allen to throw and mixing in a good amount of rushes from Singletary. I believe that the Bills over, to further convince you: Dak's Cowboys have lost two of their past three games by eight points combined.

Prop Bet Considerations:

Michael Gallup Anytime Touchdowns
John Brown Anytime Touchdowns
Devin Singletary Anytime Touchdowns
Josh Allen Over 50 Rushing Yards

Dessert:

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons - 8:20pm

My Pick: Saints -6.5

Just when you think you've had enough, out comes dessert. Your aunt made your grandmother's delicious apple pie recipe. You think you can't have anymore, but guess what, you're definitely going to.

That's what we have here, dessert. Saints rematch against the Falcons, in Atlanta, who upset them two weeks ago in a stunner. If we're being honest, it was probably the Falcons Super Bowl this season. This season, the Falcons have gone 1-9 straight-up (6-4 ATS), and for the Saints, they're 8-1 straight-up in their past nine games and 7-2 ATS.

Sure, you're probably nervous with this game especially given the last shocking outcome. But I wouldn't be. But let me give you a few reasons why I have confidence: the Falcons defense was exposed in recent weeks, demonstrating that their monster performance was just show. Julio Jones is a game time decision, Austin Hooper and Luke Stoker are both out. Those are serious weapons that Matt Ryan needs to compete with this high octane offense.

Oddsshark reports that the Saints are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games after consecutive wins, but fell to 7-4 ATS after their last second squeaker last week against the Panthers. The Falcons meanwhile are 3-8 straight up and 4-7 against the spread. More curiously, the total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints’ last six night games.

Indeed, there are offensive line concerns for the Saints, but the bigger problems are pressing the Falcons, Marshon Lattimore is tentatively scheduled to return, and if so, will either shadow a less-than Julio Jones, or if he sits, Calvin Ridley. I have far more confidence in the Saints than I do the Falcons at this point in the season. Get your bet in for the Saints points before kickoff, and before the overwhelming amount of sugar, alcohol, fat, turkey, and starch put you into an early slumber on Thanksgiving Night.

Prop Bet Considerations: