MLB Daily Edge - 5/27/19 Predictions and Model Reads

Andy Jung
May 27, 2019
2 min read

Yesterday: 2-3 | +1.37u

Overall: 12-11 | +2.75u, 14% ROI

We were almost an epic comeback away from a great day but still a really solid Sunday. Preliminary model results are profitable but I will start making adjustments this week, while continuing to track model A. I think that was one of our biggest mistakes with our highly successful NHL model, tweaks were made to the original and no version remained as is while changes were made.

+EV Betting

My style isn't as popular, especially since we're typically not picking winners. What we are doing is identifying +EV picks. I'll take today's pick as an example. The book says that Chicago wins 36.88% of the time (2.67 odds tell us this), while Model A says they win 40.29%, giving us an "EDGE" >0.15 (my current qualifier). If we have this type of +EV edge and bet it 100 times, we should statistically be profitable. You'll notice that the odds I post will be X.XX > X.XX, where the second number is the minimum odds I would consider this bet to be +EV.

I am really happy with Quick Hits and the Daily Edge, with only more fun stuff to come. You can view for every match-up on the day, refreshed down the pitching changes (effects model odds) @ plusevsports.com/dailyedge

I put a ton of work into this so far so any feedback is appreciated!

As always, stay disciplined and BOL☘️

-azndy | plusEV Sports

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