MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - Betting predictions and analysis - BROWNS AT THE JETS!

Andy Jung
Sep 16, 2019
2 min read

The Browns will have to travel to the Jets without key safety Damarious Randall. On the other side, the Jets are missing Sam Darnold, C.J. Mosley, and Leonard Williams. Vegas opened this line with the Jets as 2.5 dogs but quickly moved to 6.5 once the new broke that Darnold would be out. Is Darnold really 4 points better than Siemian? Darnold has 14 games in the books to Siemians 24. Siemian is slightly in several key metrics:

Completion% (59.3 vs 58.7)
Int% (2.9% vs 3.3%)
Y/A (6.2 vs 6)
QBR (79.9 vs 78.3)

Couple that with Siemian’s familiarity with Gase from their 2015-2017 run with the Broncos, and I think you have close to a wash. Bonus points, the Jets signed Demariyus Thomas, who should hopefully start this week, and was a key player for Trevor during his time as a starter in Denver. Some are saying Siemian is an improvement, I say he is serviceable. Comparing Siemian to Mayfield, Baker has a slightly higher TD, INT%, Y/A, and a 10 point higher QBR.

The loss of C.J. Mosley was apparent last week and warrants additional points to the dogs tonight. He left the game last Sunday with a groin injury and the Jets managed to then blow a 2 score lead. Not too worried about this passing offense with talented Quincy Enunwa heading to IR, as the rest of the receiving core is solid + the addition of Bell and Ty Montgomery. Leonard Williams, who has has 17 sacks over 65 games is also out of the lineup, downgrading the other side of the ball. Fortunately the team had a long week and is sporting a “next man up” attitude. Siemian was also able to take all first team reps in preparation for tonight. They plan to run the same plan, in true Patriots fashion, we’ll have to wait and see if their successful.

The Browns faced the Jets last year on TNF, taking a 21-17 victory at home. The only other primetime game we’ve seen Baker in was December 15, where he beat the Broncos 17-16 in Denver. Siemian is 1-1 on Monday night, beating the Chargers opening week. He then went on to get slammed by the Chiefs in a fierce division game at Arrowhead where he was picked 3 times.

A few question marks face the Browns moving into week 2, which could be a difference maker. In their week 1 whipping from the Titans, they committed 18 penalties for 182 yards. Greg Robinson also threw a tantrum and kicked a Titans safety, leading to his ejection. Also, let’s note that Mayfield took a ton of hits and left the game with his throwing wrist wrapped up.

79% of the public is on the Browns and lots of question marks SCREAMS skip but also smells like a trap. I’ve convinced myself that the Browns should not be favorites by a touchdown and will be taking the points as the Jets look to keep things competitive at home, under the lights, on MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL!