New England Patriots versus Miami Dolphins - Betting Predictions and Analysis

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

The 1-0 New England Patriots travel to Miami to take on their divisional rival, the Dolphins. These teams couldn’t have performed any differently from each other last week; as the Patriots DESTROYED a projected playoff team in the Pittsburgh Steelers…and the Dolphins…..WEEELLLL…..they were completely dismantled by second year running back...sorry, I mean Quarterback, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. While it wasn’t surprising to see the Patriots beat up Pittsburgh, a team they have dominated over the past decade, it was surprising to see the Miami Dolphins give up an NFL opening weekend record AND the Baltimore Ravens franchise record of 59 points. Surprising, especially for a team with a head coach in Brian Flores who has a defensive background…..and is no stranger to his opponent’s head coach in Bill Belichick. Flores served as an assistant under Belichick and the Patriots for over 15 years! From his early start as a scout assistant, to his Defensive assistant title last year, Flores has learned from Belichick and certainly earned his first head coaching opportunity.

With all that said, odds makers are expecting New England to filet the Dolphins this week, as the Patriots are favored by 18.5 points!!!! YES…..18 and a half points is what I said!!!!! The Patriots are the favorites to win the Super Bowl yet again this season, and just when you think they couldn’t get better, between this writing and the end of the game last week they added one of the best receivers currently in the NFL, and perhaps all time, in Antonio Brown to their already stout lineup of receivers. But returning to the line vs Miami is an interesting one. In the past decade, the Patriots have only been favored by over 14.5 points TWICE on the road. Yes, they have won 4 Super Bowls over the past decade, but have only been road favorites of over 14.5 points two times! In those games, the Pats are 1-1 against the spread; covering in Tampa Bay in 2009 but not covering in Jacksonville in 2012. Keep in mind, the Pats play in a division with teams that have averaged a winning percentage of just 46% over the past decade. During the Brady/Belichick era in New England, the Pats have been favored by 14 or more 5 times, covering the spread 3 of 5 times. Keep in mind, over the last decade, we’ve only seen 11 spreads of 14 points or higher. The favorites have gone 10-1 in those games straight up, but have only gone 4-7 against the spread.

In the past, we’ve talked at length about divisional dogs in September. Just to recap quickly, before week 1 of this season, divisional underdogs in September went 165-129 ATS (56% win percentage), winning over 28 units, and giving us an ROI of 9%. Last week, divisional dogs went 3-1 ATS! Green Bay, Washington, and Buffalo all covered with 2 of those teams winning their game OUTRIGHT! Divisional matchups that place a playoff team vs previous year non playoff team covered 2 of 3 last week (with Green Bay and Washington covering) and have covered 23 of the last 29 times.

With those numbers too good to pass by, I’m on the Miami Dolphins +18.5 this week. Game script could certainly see the New England Patriots run the ball heavily during the second half and allow Miami to stay within 3 scores. For more insight and to join our Discord, follow us on Twitter @plusEV_sports and follow me on twitter @plusEV_Andre for free daily picks and expert insight.

-plusEV_Andre