NFL Betting Edge Week 14 Value Bets: For Whom The Bell Tolls
- MG
- Dec 8, 2019
- 9 min read
What a great upset on Thursday night. Congrats to everyone who dared bet the Bears, as a lot of people convinced themselves that the Cowboys are better than they actually are. It was certainly a nice payoff for those of you who did, (I was on them) and an awful day for anyone on the Cowboys plane ride home named Jason Garrett. If I were Jerry Jones, I’d have fired him at the half and make him hitch-hike back to Dallas. His coaching allowed Mitchy Trubisky to pull off a Lamar Jackson-like level effort, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for another. It’s a foregone conclusion, in my mind, that Garrett will be jettisoned from the ‘Boys at some point soon. It’s a matter of when, not if, at this point. Then we can find a way to bet on the coaching carousel that follows (deep sleeper alert on Jeff Fisher /s). Anyway, there’s only 3 weeks left of the regular season — let’s get into it:
1:00pm Slate:
Dolphins at Jets
My Pick: Dolphins ML @ 2.9 (2.5+) [1u] on Betonline
In reviewing the games from last week, I am kicking myself for not tipping the Dolphins moneyline against the Eagles. I wanted to, badly, but didn’t. This is largely because I got scared off due to Fitzpatrick’s magical ability to collapse in on himself like a neutron star, sucking down the entire team with him. But, the YOLO Master shocked the pants off bettors and the fantasy community. The spread before kickoff was -10 for the Eagles, and the Dolphins won 37-31. I think they do it again this week, too - in the Meadowlands.
Why? Well, Jamal Adams is ailing with an ankle injury, for one. He played through it last week, but the Bengals ended up scoring their first win anyway -- all the while holding the Jets to a total of 6 points. The Jets performance reached “Buzz, your girlfriend...gross,” levels bad. Adam Gase hasn’t announced if he is playing, but even if he does, I don’t think it will be a factor. Making matters worse, Le'Veon Bell is sitting with some sort of sickness (in the fantasty playoffs no less, when I need him. RIP my championship chances.) As you will recall, the Dolphins have already beat the Jets once before, being -3.5 dogs in Miami in Week 9, 26-18. Now, the Dolphins are -5.5 dogs, and, I am simply not seeing it. Sure, the Jets defense is the best against the run (not that the Dolphins have any relevant running backs to worry about), but they’re in the bottom half against the pass, and with Adams possibly being out, I am taking these changes (yes, I know. Miami isn’t better in either of these categories, either). As Oddsshark notes, Dolphins have covered three of their last four road games, and this is the first time they are not listed as a double-digit dog away from home this year. You’re not gunna like it, you’re going to have your butthole clenched the entire time should you watch this game, but Miami beats the Jets this week.
Oddsshark Notes:
Miami is 1-11 SU in its last 12 road games.
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog.
New York is 3-8 SU in the past 11 at home vs Miami.
Prop Bet Considerations:
DeVante Parker Anytime Touchdown | 2 Touchdowns is eye-popping
Patrick Laird Anytime Touchdown
Mike Gesicki Anytime Touchdown
(I can’t find it, but if you can attempt it) Bilal Powell Anytime Touchdown
49ers at Saints:
My Pick: 49ers ML @ 2.1 (1.9+) [1u] on Betonline
You might think I’m a bit crazy, but I love the 49ers upsetting the Saints in New Orleans this week.
Oddsshark Notes:
The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as road underdogs.
The Saints are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.
The Falcons weren’t a good test of whether the Saints offensive line can handle a decent pass rush, but the 49ers most definitely are. Bosa needs to get to Brees early and often to prevent him from finding Michael Thomas over the middle. Similarly, if the 49ers can find ways to dominate on the ground against the 3rd ranked rush defense, (with Alonso and Klein out, that should help) it will limit Jimmy G from making boneheaded turnovers, gas their defense, and keep Brees off the field.
Matt Breida makes his much awaited return this week, and that will be an additional boom for the offense on the ground. Kyle Shanahan will ride the 3 running backs to victory.
Prop Bet Considerations:
Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown @ 2.75 [1U] on Betonline
Matt Brieda Anytime Touchdown @ 3.50 [1U] on Betonline
Ravens at Bills:
My Pick: Bills +6.5 @ 1.9 (1.8+) [1u] on Bovada
It’s almost offensive that the Ravens continually are placed on the early slate when their matchups command nationally televised audiences. I think after last week’s performance against the 49ers cemented his status as the 1A choice for MVP this season, with Russell Wilson being the 1B. Though, I think the 49ers showed that the Ravens offense can be slowed down, and that Jackson isn’t bulletproof (having lost a fumble). Also, thank you to those who hit me up after the game, reminding me that the Ravens wouldn’t, and didn’t, cover. I’ll take the L.
The Bills aren’t slouches, either. They upset the Cowboys on Thanksgiving (called it) and Josh Allen demonstrated he can face tough defensive challenges, and it doesn’t get easier with the final few games. Their defensive unit is ranked 3rd on the season overall.
I don’t have much more to say on this game, as I think it will be a repeat of last weeks Ravens/49ers tilt, so feel confident taking the Bills points.
Oddsshark Notes:
Baltimore is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games, winning by an average of 19 points.
Baltimore is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games as a home underdog.
Prop Bet Considerations:
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown @ 2.50 [.5U] on Betonline
Malcolm Brown Anytime Touchdown @ 2.50 [.5U] on Betonline
John Brown Anytime Touchdown @ 2.50 [.5U] on Betonline
Bengals at Browns:
My Pick: Browns -7 @ 1.9 (1.85+) [1u] on Betonline
The Browns dodged a bullet last week, even in the shocking loss to the Steelers, that Baker Mayfield didn’t have a significant hand injury. It goes without saying that the Browns, across the board, have disappointed this entire season. But, they have the chance to stay in the playoff race by showing Cleveland that there’s still a chance. If not, Baker can return to searching for the fire detector that’s beeping somewhere within the confines of the Browns stadium.
The Red Rocket returned and proved he still has some gas left in the tank, shocking the Jets to a mere 6 points. This performance won’t continue, however. The Bengals are bad, really bad. In fact, they are the league’s worst rushing defense now facing the two headed monster in Saint Nicolas Chubb, and Kareem Hunt.
I expect the Browns to gash them on the ground, with chunk drives, gassing their defense and allowing things to open through the air. The Browns defense should have their own difficulties in handling Joe Mixon, as they are *checks notes* also in the bottom ten defenses against the rush. Where this game will be determined is with turnovers, and I don’t think the Browns will have much difficulty intercepting an Andy Dalton to cover.
Oddsshark Notes:
The UNDER is 12-3-2 in the Bengals’ last 17 games overall.
The UNDER is 18-8-1 in the Browns’ last 27 home games.
The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs the Browns.
Prop Bet Considerations:
Tyler Boyd Anytime Touchdown @ 3.25 [.5U] on Betonline
Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown @ 2.29 [.5U] on Betonline
Redskins at Packers
My Pick: Redskins +13 @ 1.95 (1.85+) [1u] on Bovada
Guys, the Redskins are 2-0! Upsetting twice in as many weeks against the Lions and Panthers. Now, they travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. come on, these aren’t the Washington Redskins of last month — and being 13 point dogs is a lot of ground for the Packers to cover.
With one of the league’s worst rushing defense, facing Derrius Guice and Ageless Wonder Adrian Peterson, I have a hard time believing they’ll blow out Washington. According to NumberFire (give them a follow if you don’t) “...Washington's defense has been kind of underrated this year. They've been about middle of the pack in yards per play allowed with 5.4 and have actually been one of the top teams in quarterback pressures per drop back -- their surprising 28.7% quarterback pressure rate ranks fourth in the league. That will be key against the Packers this week.”
All this leads me to believe that the Redskins should keep this close and cover against the Packers, so take the points...and mayyyybeeee throw a quarter unit on the Redskins moneyline because the odds are just that juicy to pass up...
Oddsshark Notes:
The Redskins are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a double-digit underdog.
The Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games after covering in their most recent home game.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Redskins’ last 6 road games against the Packers.
Prop Bet Considerations:
Allen Lazard Anytime Touchdown @ 4 [.5U] on Betonline
Derrius Guice Anytime Touchdown @ 3.50 [.5U] on Betonline
4:00pm Slate:
Chargers at Jaguars:
My Pick: Jaguars Minchew-Mania ML @ 2.55 (2.3+) [1u] on Bovada
Guys, Gardner Minchew is back! Don your magic mustaches, because because the energy it brings the fans and team is noticeable. Does that mean they’ll upset the favored Chargers? I think so. Because the Chargers will do Chargers things, and give the game away in the last few minutes and lose.
Oddsshark Notes:
The Chargers are 8-3 SU and ATS in their last 11 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
The Jaguars are 9-25 SU in their last 34 games as home underdogs.
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of the Chargers’ last 20 games in December.
Prop Bet Considerations:
DJ Chark Anytime Touchdown
Dede Westbrook Anytime Touchdown
Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown
Austin Ekeler 5+ Receptions
Titans at Raiders:
My Pick: Titans -3 @ 1.99 (1.9+) [1u] on Betonline
Ryan Tannehill continues to dominate in taking over for Marcus Mariota. That trend continues this week against the Raiders secondary giving up the 4th most passing touchdowns in the league.
Tannehill leads the NFL with a 113.9 passer rating heading into Week 14. Since taking over the starting job in Week 7, Tannehill has passed for 1,458 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions with a passer rating of 117.1 in his six starts. That’s freaking nuts, man.
Oddsshark Notes:
The total has gone OVER in the Titans’ last 6 games.
The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as home underdogs.
The Titans are 3-13 SU in their last 16 road games vs the Raiders.
History doesn’t help my case here, but the X factors to this game are Derrick Freightrain Henry, Tannehill minimizing his chances for making mistakes (of which his past shows many), and a solid defense that should be able to keep Derek Carr in check, and maybe pick him off. The Titans should be able to get to Carr early and often as the offensive line is missing Trent Brown.
I don’t have much more to say other than keep riding Tannehill’s leadership to the bank.
Prop Bet Considerations:
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown @ 2.50 [.5U] on Betonline
Corey Davis Anytime Touchdown
Darren Waller Anytime Touchdown
Sunday Night:
Seahawks at Rams:
My Pick: Seahawks ML@ 1.97 (1.9+) [1u] on Betonline
I’ve tailed the Seahawks a lot this season, and I see no reason to stop now. The Russell Wilson Factor is delivering time and time again. Yet, the books put the Seahawks as dogs in Los Angeles (basically a pick-em). Last time they played, we sat back and watched an awesome back and forth, with the Seahawks winning by 1. Now, they’re 1 point dogs in Los Angeles.
Oddsshark tells us that the total has gone OVER in the last four Seahawks-Rams meetings with an average combined score of 59.75 points. When that happens, Oddsshark reports that the Rams are also 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS with five consecutive OVERS hit when a home dog of 7 or fewer points. Further, during the Jared Goff era, the Rams are 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS when home dogs of 3 or fewer points. That tells me all I need to know.
The Seahawks are going to have to get to Goff early and often in order to rattle him, forcing the ball into tight windows increasing the chances for a pick. With a so-so secondary, it’s important they keep riding on the legs of Penny and Carson to chew the clock and get Goff throwing the ball. Ultimately, I think this could be a similar nail-biter to last week’s game, but the RWF wins out in the end.
Oddshark Notes:
The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
The Rams are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at the Rams.
Prop Bet Considerations:
Raashad Penny Anytime Touchdown @ 3.25 [.5U] on Betonline
Tyler Higbee Anytime Touchdown @ 3.00 [.5U] on Betonline
Given the number of bets on this Sunday Slate, I highly recommend bankroll management. Prop bet considerations with the decimal and site are the ones I personally took, and please be sure to scale your unit size properly.
Good night, and good luck!
Mike G. | www.plusevsports.com
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