NFL Betting Edge Week 15 Value Bets: Remember the Titans

MG
Dec 15, 2019
6 min read

Welp, I currently find myself out of the playoffs in fantasy. Made it in 3 leagues but couldn’t make it all the way to the end. Yeah, I’m bitter, but now free to do more of this stuff: like try and make other people money. We went 1-1 on Thursday backing the Ravens spread (which I was told was nuts for taking, but quoth the Raven, nevermore...), but missed on calling who would score two touchdowns, arguing it would be Marquise Brown, not Mark Ingram. Also should have thought to call him the first to score, too.

You Miss 100% of the shots you don't take. - Wayne Gretzky -- Michael Scott

Anyway, let’s get into it:

Buccaneers at Lions

My Pick: Buccaneers -5 @ 1.9 (1.85+) [1u] on Bookmaker

Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Yeah, I know. After swearing off Jameis Winston a few weeks ago, I’ve gone to bet him again twice more in the last three weeks. You can almost predict his performance without knowing the opponent: 300-400 yards passing, 2-3 passing touchdowns, and anywhere between 1-5 interceptions. It’s a rollercoaster, but you’ll deal with it in both fantasy and sports betting.

Oddsshark tells us a few things: the Buccaneers are 4-3 away from home both straight up and against the spread while the Lions have lost six in a row. Additionally, Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games, while Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS in the past 12 meetings with Detroit. Finally, Detroit is 0-8 SU in its last 8 games as an underdog. The line has moved a lot from its initial 3.5, now to 5 to 6.5 depending on the book. I am sure that there is a lot of money riding on Winston’s arm, and it’s not hard to understand why: the Lions are bad.

I wouldn’t be shocked if this is a high scoring affair, but don’t have any confidence in rookie David Blough. Look for Breshard Perriman and Justin Watson to get more attention with Chris Godwin getting the Darius Slay treatment.

Ride with the Bucs.

Bears at Packers

My Pick: Bears ML @ 2.8 (2+) [1u] on Betonline

It seems that the Bears have finally hit their stride? Right? *Looks left...looks right* can we say that Mitch Trubisky has been low key good in recent weeks? Was the beginning of the season a fluke? It’s not going to be easy, but I think the Bears defense can frustrate the Packers.

Last week the Redskins proved that they can get to Rodgers, limiting him to under 200 yards passing and sacked him 4 times. And this is the Redskins defense, so imagine what the Khalil Mack lead Bears D can do -- and they get the benefit of Akeem Hicks returning from IR, too. With targeted passes to Robinson and Miller, and relying chunk yardage from Montgomery, they can limit mistakes in win in wicked cold country.

Texans at Titans

My Pick: Titans -3 @ 1.92 (1.87+) [1u] on Bookmaker

Ryan Tannehill is 2019’s Nick Foles -- minus the fanfare it seems. According to ESPN’s Stats and Info, since naming Tannehill the starting QB in Week 7, the Titans have the 2nd-most offensive TDs and are scoring the 2nd-most PPG (31.4) in the NFL over that span. CBS Sports HQ says that Tannehill has: a better QB Rating than Drew Brees, more Yards than Aaron Rodgers, more TD than Tom Brady, fewer INT than Russell Wilson, and a better CMP % than Lamar Jackson. Now 6-1 as a starter. You guys are smart, I think you can see where I am going with this.

The Texans defense got smoked last week against rookie Drew Lock, and with the hottest team playing at home, I think this is a layup. Oddsshark says that the Titans are 12-2 SU in its last 14 games as a home favorite. And if that weren’t juicy enough, they’re 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 divisional home games.

Remember the Titans.

Dolphins at Giants

My Pick: Dolphins ML @ 2.45 (2+) [1u] on Bovada

Man, the return of Eli Manning and his first half performance lulled me into a false set of confidence that the Giants would pull out a W as I live bet them against my own gut. I’m glad they covered the +9 points (which I called), but didn’t really matter when they pulled defeat from the jaws of victory. Ugh. Now they’re at home against the Dolphins, having cut Janoris Jenkins, with a cadre of rookies playing defensive back against the current GOAT of throwing YOLOballs: Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who knows, maybe they’ll outperform expectations in the final 3 games, but I am not that high on them. Oh, I neglected to mention that both Allen Hurns and DeVante Parker are slated to return, too.

The fact that the Giants are favored here is offensive. They’re a bad team. The Dolphins are better -- there’s no other way to say it. Sure, the Giants looked decent last week, but Manning’s awful play was overshadowed by two outstanding plays by Darius Slayton, ending in two scores. Oddsshark says that the Dolphins have rallied since the start of the season to go 7-2 ATS over their last nine games. Meanwhile, the New York Not-So-Great-At-Football Giants are 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS over their last nine games.

This feels like borderline robbery to me. The Dolphins covered last week and nearly won, if it weren’t for the fact their top receivers were all hurt. It’s still going to be a butthole clenching couple of hours, as the Dolphins defense is better, but the Fins definitely beat the odds this week and win at the Meadowlands.

Eagles at Redskins

My Pick: Washington +6 @ 1.92 (1.85+) [1u] on Betonline

Tim Tai/Staff Photographer Philadelphia Inquirer

Seems like books have respected Washington some more, as they were an incredible 13 point dogs against the Packers, covering, and losing by a mere 5. Truthfully, I think if Derrius Guice’s knee wasn’t made of potato chips (RIP my prop bet), they could have won. The Eagles barely won against the Giants -- if it were Daniel Jones under center I think things could be different.

Looking at this week: both the Eagles and Washington defenses are terrible. In fact, the Philly and Washington defenses are ranked 18th and 20th on the season respectively. In total, they’ve given up over 6000 yards passing and almost 50 touchdowns between the two of them. What’s interesting is that Washington has more takeaways on the year, overall (20/16). Oddsshark notes that the total has gone OVER in 8 of the Eagles’ last 11 games on the road in December. History tells us that the Eagles have a history of murdering their divisional opponents, but I think that it won’t repeat itself in the Nation’s capitol this week.

Broncos at Chiefs

My Pick: Broncos +10 @ 1.86 (1.8+) [1u] on Betonline

🔒 this in: Drew Lock continues to show he’s the possible quarterback for the Broncos’ future this week in Kansas City. Last week, they were 9.5 point dogs in Houston, they blew the doors off that expectation by the books. Now, they’re 10 point dogs to the dueling Chiefs.

Oddsshark has some great facts: the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home vs teams with losing records. Most concerningly, the Broncos are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs the Chiefs. Both defenses are in the middle of the pack, essentially right next to each other across the board. There will be lingering questions about Patrick Mahomes hand, and while I am not calling for a Broncos upset, I am saying they cover.

Rams at Cowboys

My Pick: Rams -1 @ 1.86 (1.8+) [1u] on Betonline

Still shaking my head that Jerry Jones didn’t take up my suggestion that he make Jason Garrett walk home from Chicago last week. The guy has taken what looked like a Super Bowl contender in the first few weeks and turned it into a team on the fringes of making the playoffs. Mitchy Trubisky walked all over their defense and now they’re facing the red hot Rams at home.

I am kind of shocked that this game opened as the ‘Boys being -3 point favorites, but whatever, don’t put baby-faced Jared Goff in a corner. Since getting embarrassed against the Ravens, Los Angeles has responded by outscoring opponents 62-19 in its last two games. Gurley looks like he’s getting back into his groove, and it seems that Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee are wearing the Harry Potter invisibility cloak, as defenses simply haven’t covered either one in recent weeks. Oddsshark says that the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after consecutive ATS losses, while the Rams are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games on the road vs teams with losing records.

Certainly conflicting information, but I don’t know how anyone can be confident in the Cowboys right now as the Rams have finally gotten on the right track.

Prop Bet Considerations:

Cutting back on the prop bets from last week, definitely spread myself too thin. These below seem solid.

Anthony Miller +1 TD @ 3.5 [.5U] on Betonline
Mitch Trubisky +27 Rushing Yards @ 2.61 [.5U] on Betonline
A.J. Brown +1 TD @ 2.5 [.5U] on Betonline
David Njoku +1 TD @ 3 [1U] on Betonline FYI: Cardinals don’t cover the tight end.
Tyler Higbee +1TD @ 3 [.5U] on Betonline

Possible Parlay: