NFL Betting Edge Week 16 Value Bets: Dog Day Afternoon
- MG
- Dec 22, 2019
- 4 min read
Today was a back and forth, the Texans covered and the Bills didn’t. To make matters worse, the under missed, too. O.J. Howard has stone hands, James White almost scored, and whiffed on the receptions, while Josh Allen did Josh Allen things...so it was a typical roller coaster day. Let’s brush it off and get into it.
Let’s get into it:
Lions at Broncos
My Pick: Broncos -7 @ 1.952 (1.9+) [1u] on Betonline
The Lions are trash: Matthew Stafford is done for the season, Scarborough is out, and Jones is also on the IR. If there is any upside it’s that Kerryon Johnson is returning. Meanwhile, the Broncos are on the up and up, having won 2 of the last 3, with Drew Lock at the helm.
According to Oddsshark, the Lions are 2-11 SU in their last 13 road games when they’re underdogs and have lost five straight road games overall, they’re also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. While the Broncos history of being 2-6 ATS in their last 8 December home games is concerning, but given the dire straits that the Detroit defense is in, I see no reason to believe that the Broncos offense takes advantage of it.
Ravens at Browns
My Pick: Ravens -9.5 @ 1.87 (1.8+) [1u] on Bookmaker
You’re likely looking at the above and wondering where we got it, but this was a few days ago. All things are pointing in the Ravens direction: Considering they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at Cleveland, there's a reason for hope they can cover. Further, Oddsshark notes that the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games, while the Browns are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 at home vs teams with winning records. Making matters worse, the Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a double-digit underdog. Don’t sweat this one.
Giants at Washington
My Pick: Redskins ML @ 2 (1.95+) [1u] on Betonline
Oddsshark coined a great name for this matchup: The Battle of the Cellar Dwellers. Haskins has been getting better week by week, and the Giants defense holding offenses to 20 points or less in regulation 3 times in its last 4 games. Extra bonus for the Giants: Barkley looks healthy and Jones is back from injury.
The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road. The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Giants’ last 6 games vs the Redskins. Given the Redskins past performance against the Packers and Eagles, I think they finally catch a break and win this one.
Panthers at Colts
My Pick: Panthers ML @ 3.5 (3+) [1u] on Bovada
The Colts got blasted last week against the Saints, seemingly giving up in the middle of the 1st quarter. Carolina hasn’t had much success either, and has handed QB duties to Will Grier. Oddsshark says that the Panthers have lost six straight games with a 1-4-1 ATS record while the Indianapolis Colts have lost four straight games with a 1-2-1 ATS record.
With Brissett regressing, I think the Grier lead offense finds the spark it needs. Worth mentioning that the Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs the AFC, while the Colts are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games vs the Panthers. It’s gunna be a wild one, but the Panthers win out.
Cowboys at Eagles
My Pick: Eagles ML @ 2.25 (2.2+) [1u] on Bovada
Another important matchup, this deciding the fate of the NFC East, where neither of the top two teams seemingly want to win. Dallas’ offense has returned to early season form, while their defense, especially their linebackers, can’t stay healthy. The Eagles, on the other hand, have pulled two victories from the jaws of defeat, even with a decimated wide receiver corps.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Cowboys’ last 8 division games, though I don’t see that happening here. Concerningly, the Eagles are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS and SU in their last 7 games on the road vs the Eagles.
Bengals at Dolphins
My Pick: Dolphins ML @ 2.1 (2+) [1u] on Bookmaker
The Bengals are still looking for their first road win in 2019, and I have a hard time thinking they get it here. The Dolphins have rebounded from the terrible start at the beginning of the season, too. Frankly, the Bengals should just take the L now, as they would lock up 1st round pick in next year’s draft. Oddsshark says that Cincinnati is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games, while Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games as a home favorite. If it couldn’t be a better situation: Miami is 6-2 SU and ATS in its last 8 December home games. Take their moneyline.
Packers at Vikings
My Pick: Packers ML @ 2.99 (2.5+) [1u] on Bookmaker
Aaron Rodgers as an underdog, and the Vikings are banged up heading into the playoffs. This screams to me a vintage Rodgers matchup, so yes, please I am taking the moneyline. The Packers are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 road games, while the Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Alarmingly, the Packers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games vs teams with winning records. With the Vikings having so many players being dinged up, I think the Packers pull this out in the end.
Prop Bet Considerations:
Going to only give two, as I’ve been getting hosed in recent weeks
Jacob Hollister 1+ Touchdown @ 2.50 [1U] on Betonline <- Remember, Cardinals don’t cover tight ends.
Jacob Hollister 36+ Receiving Yards @ 1.87 [0.5U] on Betonline
Good night, and good luck!
Mike G. | www.plusevsports.com
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