NFL Betting Edge Week 16 Value Bets: Saturday Is For the (Football) Boys

MG
Dec 21, 2019
3 min read

Two things before we dive in. First, anyone playing in the Fantasy Championships this weekend, good luck. It’s hard work to get this far, and I hope that the Fantasy Gods tilt things in your favor, delivering the Christmas Bonus, or bragging rights over your buddies.

As for last week, because wow. On paper I got killed -- lost every tipped bet outside of the Buccaneers destroying the Lions. I know that almost only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades, but it’s worth mentioning a few things. The Bears were one caught lateral away from tying in the final seconds, and the Redskins had covered up until a fluke fumble 6 in the final seconds. The Titans won’t be remembered and we can just straight skip the Broncos, Dolphins and Rams.

Let’s get into it:

Texans at Buccaneers

My Pick: Texans -3 @ 1.83 [1.80] [1U] on Betonline

The Bucs are in bad shape. Godwin is out, Evans done for the year. Winston popped up on the injury report and us questionable to play. OJ Howard is likely the only bright spot in this offense heading into tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Texans are coming off a big win against the Titans and are fighting to win their second division title.

With the receiving corps for the Buccaneers absolutely decimated, I see no reason to believe that Watson and his band of merry men can’t smash the Buccaneers secondary. Oddsshark says that Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games as a road favorite, while Tampa Bay is 3-13 SU in its last 16 Saturday games (0-8 ATS run). Don’t sweat this one.

Bills at Patriots

My Pick: Bills +6.5 @ 1.94 [1.90] [1U] on Betonline

Under 37 @ 1.95 (1.9+) [1u] on Betonline

The Bills are on a damn roll, man. They’ve proven they're legit, relying on their defense to keep opposing offenses off the field and using Josh Allen’s legs to to get them through tough spots. The Patriots won last week, too, but their offense is still in a funk. The Patriots defense did Patriots defense things, decimating the hapless Bengals last week. You have to wonder if their collective backs hurt at this point, having carried the Patriots entire team throughout most of their wins this season.

I still think the Patriots win, but similar to the last time these two teams played, I think that the Bills cover. The Bills’ defense is formidable, and with the Patriots offense still having question marks, I anticipate mistakes and reliance on the defenses stopping drives being the overall determining factor, with the Patriots again delivering the W. Some Oddshark notes for you: Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 road games, while New England is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 divisional home games -- but Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs divisional opponents.

Final note: The past three meetings have gone UNDER the total, with no more than 36 points scored.

Prop Bet Considerations:

Similar to the opening, we went 3-1-1 with prop bets. Miller, Trubisky, and Brown all hit. Njoku was ruled out early, but Ricky Seals-Jones caught two touchdowns (told you Cardinals don’t cover tight ends) and Higbee went absolutely nuts catching 12 passes for 111 (should have tipped the yardage), but missed in getting the tuddy.