NFL Monday Night Football - Analysis and Bet Predictions

I think others would agree that the Browns wouldn't have such a hard time yesterday. No one would've predicted their starting LT Greg Robinson would be ejected for kicking a guy either. This caused an insane amount of shuffle on the line and basically ruined the Browns chances. Game flow put the Titans ahead and gave little reason to use Dion Lewis in the passing game. Their ground back got, what I believe was, their only screen pass and took it for 75 yards. This is what they use Lewis for 10/10 times but not when ahead by so much.

Possibly the most frustrating thing was losing the Lev Bell prop by 1 yard. Gurley basically split carries with Malcom Brown and only received 1 target. The Skins came out hot but couldn't hang on once DJax decided to go super saiyan.

Managed to claw back a bit with the night game, but overall very disappointing Sunday. And now, on to Monday!

BRONCOS @ RAIDERS

Tonight, Derek Carr’s Raiders take the field against the Denver Broncos. The cast around Carr is perhaps the best he’s had since Amari Cooper was around, having added to their receiving corps future Hall of Famer Antonio Brown, 24th overall pick in the draft Josh Jacobs, and new additions in Tyrell Williams and J.J. Nelson … record scratch... this is what we thought a write up would have looked like heading into Friday night. I am from New England, and there’s a saying that “If you wait a few minutes and the weather will change…” -- well that applies to the NFL, as well. Had the world not fallen apart after Antonio Brown’s release, I would’ve loved the Raiders tonight. Unfortunately for the entire NFL, Brown is now a Patriot. And sadly, Carr lost someone who he established early chemistry with in practice during the off-season.

Derek Carr is left with a clean slate of weapons, with the team acquiring players from the Chargers, Cardinals, and Colts. Top receiver Tyrell Williams was poised for a solid season with Brown drawing all opposing defense’s attention. Williams did well on the Chargers, playing all 16 games in the last 3 years with, what I would consider, solid production. This is especially impressive given the mouths that Philip Rivers has to feed. Rookie wide receiver out of Clemson, Hunter Renfrow, picked in the 5th round, finds himself starting in the slot tonight. J.J. Nelson should round out the primary wide receiver core, and while this group is talented, it will be interesting to see how they are utilized and what type of chemistry Carr has with these new additions. And, while we’re on the subject of chemistry, Darren Waller will see his role significantly increase this year, with the loss of Cook and now the loss of Brown. Carr moved the ball most successfully to Cook last year and ranked 6th in both the league in TE target success rate, 60%, and TE yards per reception, 8.4.

Last year, Carr rocked a decent 97.4 passer rating at home although the Raiders victory against the Broncos in week 16 last season came from rushing yards on the ground. Carr had an underwhelming 197 yards with no TDs on 26 attempts. Muscle Hamster Doug Martin had a night, breaking 100 yards and scoring 1 TD. Rookie Jacobs has the talent to be a featured back in this offense and has impressed during the preseason. Over the past few years the Broncos’ defense hasn’t been the dominant force we’re used to seeing. Fortunately, things look positive with Vic Fangio in town. This 2019 defense was recently ranked 2nd, with only the Patriots ahead of them and after last night's performance against the Steelers, I think we can agree that Patriots defense are at least top 5. Carr and his improved offensive line will be quickly tested against this elite pass rush. Obvious keys to success here are Jacobs, the Carr-Waller connection, and the wideouts having enough time to effectively stretch the field.

Former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco comes into Denver this year after being traded from the Ravens for a 4th round pick and looks to turn around this abysmal offense. The Broncos front office has bolstered the offensive line and have boom potential with their wide receiver core in Cortland Sutton and DaeShaun Hamilton, with a fully healthy sophomore running back in Phillip Lindsay. Rookie tight end, and 20th overall pick in the draft, Noah Fant will likely be one of Flacco's top targets, and rightfully so. According to Graham Barfield, fantasy analyst and writer for NFL.com stated back in April that Flacco, over the past three years, has targeted a tight end on 23% of his passes. The fifth-highest rate in the league during that span.

I am not entirely convinced that the Raiders defense is going to be better than last year, but they received upgrades which should propel them to at least the middle of the pack.

Road favorites went 3-1 yesterday and I while I think the Raiders will be looking to prove something, especially given all the recent drama and shake-ups, I think this will be an easy cover. Week 1, we saw good offenses struggle against teams with top defenses. The Broncos defense will prove to be too much for this newly assembled squad led by Derek Carr.

I trust Flacco and this offense to also find success and we’ll wait until Oakland proves their D has improved. Denver to win by at least a touchdown makes me confident in selling points to -4 at 2.325 (+133) odds.

POTD - Denver Broncos -4 (2.325 > 1.9) 1u on Nitrogensports