NFL SUNDAY BETTING EDGE - Predictions and Analysis - 4 MUST BET TIPS
- Andy Jung
- Sep 14, 2019
- 7 min read
Seattle Seahawks ML @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson and the 1-0 Seahawks travel to the east coast for a 1:00pm tilt against the defeated, and frankly, humiliated, Pittsburgh Steelers. The Hawks are currently 3½ point underdogs with a 46½ point over/under. Before we get into it, let’s talk about the last game.
Alexa: pause
The Steelers were bad. Remember when you were playing Madden 2005 and you made an entire team of nothing but 6 foot 10 monsters who have 99 overall everything? Then you chose some random team to destroy (probably the Browns) cause high school sucks?
Yeah, that bad. The Patriots made them look like fools.
Alexa: Play
Big Ben threw for 276 yards and a pick. James Conner ran for 21. Even more concerningly, Ben was 6-for-8 for 75 yards and a 95 QBR when targeting JuJu. But, when he looked elsewhere, he completed just 54% of his passes and his QBR fell to 12, according to ESPN (thanks Donte!). Insert puke emoji here and RIP to the fantasy players out there relying on Big Ben, Conner, and Juju to help salvage their days cause they were facing Lamar Jackson. I feel your pain.
Anyway, this is the first time in his 8 year career that Russell Wilson will play the Steelers at Heinz Field, which I found to be surprising for some reason. But it should be an exciting matchup, as the Steelers are looking to prove they’re not chumps, and the Seahawks will want to build on their thrilling 4th quarter comeback against the Bengals.
Steelers won’t have it easy, they’re now staring down the Seattle defense that now includes one of the best defensive ends in the game in Jadeveon Clowney. But, even with that, the Red freaking Rocket himself was able to throw for 418 yards and two scores against the Legion Of Boom-less Hawks defense. Like come on, Dalton didn’t even throw an interception (though he was awful close on a few of the deeper passes that SHOULD have been). Worth pointing out that because Dalton threw so well, he being sacked 5 times and having 2 fumbles is overlooked entirely. Seriously, we forgot.
But, we also know that past performance is not a predictor of future results. This is a new Steelers era without Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. So, can Big Ben find some chemistry with someone other than Juju? As we wrote above, his QBR was 12 when targeting someone other than Smith-Schuster. That’s...uhm...eye opening, guys. We figure that chemistry should develop among the other receivers as the season moves forward, but damn, the talent cliff, isn’t really a cliff, it’s a damn black hole after Juju.
Donte Moncrief had 10 targets and wrangling in only 3. James Washington was 6/2. Vance McDonald 4/2. The only bright spot was Ryan Switzer, catching all 6 targets for 29 yards. (← Congrats to the one person on earth starting him in a PPR league)
Overall: Zoinks, Shaggy, Zoinks.
Things look dire for the Steelers on face value, but there is upside: Roethlisberger's top eight career fantasy performances has come at home, and the over is 11-2 in Pittsburgh's past 13 games as a home favorite. And, Ben is 18-10 on his career after losing away and going home. So, look for the Steelers to be able to get into rhythm through the air, as it’s possible Seahawks Safety Tedric Thompson could be out of the game with a leg injury.
Now comes the Russell Wilson Factor™. You’d think that a west coast team like the Seahawks playing on the east coast would have trouble with the time change and travel. Not Wilson. He’s tough as nails and has a winning record: 13-6 lifetime, in fact.
Average win spread of 14 and average loss spread of -5.2.
Anticipate the Seahawks to follow in the Patriots footsteps by throwing the ball deep. Wilson was 14/22 against the Bengals, hitting big plays to bail him out of what could have been a losing situation. Tyler Lockett, who is coming off a 2018 season where he had a touchdown for every 5.7 receptions, was only targeted twice: one was a drop, and the other was...you guessed it: a touchdown - on a beautiful dime of a throw. Meanwhile, D.K. Metcalf had a nice first outing as a rookie, catching 4 passes on 6 targets for 89 total yards -- 3 of those targets were on deep passes. 2 of Metcalf’s receptions set up critical touchdowns that were needed for the Seahawks to win. Chris Carson should be slowed in the run game, as the Steelers held Sony Michel to 14 yards on 15 carries (though we could argue that you KNEW the Patriots were going to run when Sony was on the field) but critical in the passing attack continuing to serve as Wilson’s safety net.
All things being equal, if we look at Roethlisberger's career, history and the data tells us that he will not be the same Blake Bortles wood tier trash we saw in Foxboro... but seriously, it doesn't matter. Take a look at both teams last week. They clearly struggled on both sides of the ball, the Patriots however, did leave a lot of breadcrumbs behind on how to completely stall the Steelers offense and further exploit their defense. But we also know that the Patriots play chess while everyone else plays checkers (for those of you keeping track, I hope you can tell I am wearing my Patriots jersey while writing this, ketchup stains and all). And let’s not forget the Russell Wilson Factor™. I do believe we’ve found some value on the Seahawks. We think they should take this around 42% of the time versus the books price of 37%, giving us a nice edge on Seattle ML. Faders beware, Wilson is virtually immune to game script and if he gets a chance to write it himself, watch out.
-plusEV_MG
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins +4.5
The 1-0 New England Patriots travel to Miami to take on their divisional rival, the Dolphins. These teams couldn’t have performed any differently from each other last week; as the Patriots DESTROYED a projected playoff team in the Pittsburgh Steelers…and the Dolphins…..WEEELLLL…..they were completely dismantled by second year running back...sorry, I mean Quarterback, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. While it wasn’t surprising to see the Patriots beat up Pittsburgh, a team they have dominated over the past decade, it was surprising to see the Miami Dolphins give up an NFL opening weekend record AND the Baltimore Ravens franchise record of 59 points. Surprising, especially for a team with a head coach in Brian Flores who has a defensive background…..and is no stranger to his opponent’s head coach in Bill Belichick. Flores served as an assistant under Belichick and the Patriots for over 15 years! From his early start as a scout assistant, to his Defensive assistant title last year, Flores has learned from Belichick and certainly earned his first head coaching opportunity.
With all that said, odds makers are expecting New England to filet the Dolphins this week, as the Patriots are favored by 18.5 points!!!! YES…..18 and a half points is what I said!!!!! The Patriots are the favorites to win the Super Bowl yet again this season, and just when you think they couldn’t get better, between this writing and the end of the game last week they added one of the best receivers currently in the NFL, and perhaps all time, in Antonio Brown to their already stout lineup of receivers. But returning to the line vs Miami is an interesting one. In the past decade, the Patriots have only been favored by over 14.5 points TWICE on the road. Yes, they have won 4 Super Bowls over the past decade, but have only been road favorites of over 14.5 points two times! In those games, the Pats are 1-1 against the spread; covering in Tampa Bay in 2009 but not covering in Jacksonville in 2012. Keep in mind, the Pats play in a division with teams that have averaged a winning percentage of just 46% over the past decade. During the Brady/Belichick era in New England, the Pats have been favored by 14 or more 5 times, covering the spread 3 of 5 times. Keep in mind, over the last decade, we’ve only seen 11 spreads of 14 points or higher. The favorites have gone 10-1 in those games straight up, but have only gone 4-7 against the spread.
In the past, we’ve talked at length about divisional dogs in September. Just to recap quickly, before week 1 of this season, divisional underdogs in September went 165-129 ATS (56% win percentage), winning over 28 units, and giving us an ROI of 9%. Last week, divisional dogs went 3-1 ATS! Green Bay, Washington, and Buffalo all covered with 2 of those teams winning their game OUTRIGHT! Divisional matchups that place a playoff team vs previous year non playoff team covered 2 of 3 last week (with Green Bay and Washington covering) and have covered 23 of the last 29 times.
With those numbers too good to pass by, I’m on the Miami Dolphins +18.5 this week. Game script could certainly see the New England Patriots run the ball heavily during the second half and allow Miami to stay within 3 scores. For more insight and to join our Discord, follow us on Twitter @plusEV_sports and follow me on twitter @plusEV_Andre for free daily picks and expert insight.
-plusEV_Andre
New England Patriots 1Q -4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Another pick for the NE/MIA game which screams VALUE CITY. I am fading this Miami team as they compete for the first overall draft pick. All signs point to a blowout which is why we should tread lightly on the overall game. While the Patriots spread scares me and I have to agree with everything highlighted by Dre’s pick, there’s no doubt they are going to start this game behind. I also don’t believe this defense is going to let them find any kind of lead early, or frankly… at all. Look for this Patriots offense to pick up their America's Worst Nightmare Tour where they left off (see RIP Steelers 33-3 last week). If Brown plays, I expect Brady to treat this like preseason and get comfortable with his newest weapon at game speed. This team is going to be firing at all cylinders, just like their run toward a perfect season (F YOU ELI) where the Patriots went straight IDGAF 24/7 YOLOSWAG.
Data wise, they have historically done well in the first quarter and we’ve feasted off this pick for several years now. Here’s the last 5 year point averages against the league:
We slammer jammed the Patriots first quarter spread (-4.5) when it opened for 2u at 1.96. Take this anywhere you can find it > 1.8 odds.
-azndy
Sunday Betting Edge
azndy: 1st Quarter: New England Patriots -4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins @ 1.96 > 1.9 [2u] on Nitrogen
dre: Miami Dolphins +18.5 vs. New England Patriots @ 1.9 [1u] on
azndy: Seattle Seahawks ML vs. Pittsburgh Steelers @ 2.65 > 2.5 [1u] on Nitrogen
azndy/dre: Minnesota Vikings ML vs. Green Bay Packers @ 2.37 > 2.1 [1u] on Nitrogen
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