NFL Sunday Edge - Analysis and Betting Predictions for Seahawks vs Browns and 49ers vs Rams

MG
Oct 12, 2019
4 min read

Seattle Seahawks v. Cleveland Browns

The Russell. Wilson. Factor. It’s a thing! Or, at least, I will do my best to make it one. His MVP caliber season will be facing a decent test this coming week traveling to Cleveland, as the Browns backs are against the wall, but I believe Wilson will continue his dominance against what seems to be trending towards another lost season for the Browns. Currently at +0/+0 on Bookmaker with a 47 point over/under.

We gotta recap the 49ers game. You watched, right? It was muy mal (that’s very bad for you non-spanish speakers out there). Baker Mayfield looked like Johnny Manziel. He couldn’t do anything, and eventually got benched so he can continue to film Progressive commercials with his wife, while the Browns were trying to get some points on the board. Alas, they were blown out. We don’t need to dig into the numbers further, it’s a waste of time. The Hawks, meanwhile, won in a squeaker of their own against the Rams the previous Thursday night. Though Wilson made it look easy, as he dazzled on at Centurylink, throwing for 268 yards and 4 touchdowns to 4 different receivers.

Now, conventional wisdom tells us that west coast teams have a tough time traveling to the east coast with an earlier start time. It’s worth recalling a stat line that the PlusEV Sports NFL team dropped in Week 2. Wilson has a winning record against east coast teams when traveling: 14-6 lifetime. This crutch argument really affect Wilson at all.

I believe that he adds another win tomorrow. Sure, you can argue that with some injuries on the offensive line, the Browns front 7 might be able to actually get to Wilson, as Cleveland’s defense is 6th in sacks but again: RWF. What is going to be a bigger question mark is how the Browns offensive line, having allowed Mayfield to be sacked 16 times already this season, deals with Ziggy Ansah and Jadeveon Clowney. I am confident that one of the two of them a sack, maybe both.

Some notes to consider: The Browns defense is ranked 29th in the league against the run, allowing an average of 151 rushing yards a game, so we should see Chris Carson SZN continue. Mayfield has thrown 8 interceptions so far on the season, and with the Seahawls having only snagged 3 picks, look for some positive regression in getting one, perhaps more. Shaquill Griffin faces his toughest matchup yet, against Odell Beckham, but overall this won’t be a factor because the Seahawks should win comfortably.

RWF. RWF. RWF.

Seahawks +0 vs. Browns @ 1.9 (+1.90) [1u] on Bookmaker

San Francisco 49ers v. Los Angeles Rams

If you had told me at the start of the season that one of these two teams would be undefeated going into this match up, I would have taken the Rams 10 times out of 10. But this is the NFL, and as we know all too well, anything can happen. So, of course, that means former Tom Brady bench warmer and Tommy Hilfiger model Jimmy Garoppolo lead 49ers are one of two undefeated teams remaining. Worth mentioning: this is the first time the team is 4-0 since 1990. Nice.

You can definitely see why, too. Any objective observer watching them against the Browns last week would tell you that this defense is legit. Nick Bosa basically established residency in the Browns backfield, eating Baker Mayfield alive. According to ESPN Stats and Info, Bosa had two sacks, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery, making him the first 49er in the last 25 years with a stat line like that -- which awarded him the NFC Defensive Player of the Week title as a result. And because the defense was so good, the offense didn’t have to do much. Though, when they were on the field, it was fun to see Matt Breida, walking human cast Tevin Coleman, and Gronk Jr -- George Kittle dismantle the Browns defense to a 31-3 rout. Fun fact: the 49ers had more rushing yards (275) than the Browns did on total offense (180).

Now they face the Rams at the Colosseum as +3.0 dogs, with a 50 point over/under. They have a lot on the line to prove that they’re a legit team, especially injuries mounting: the 49ers have lost tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey and now, Kyle Juszczyk. Pressure is on the Rams, as well, having lost two straight, and want to prove that the league hasn’t pulled a Patriots on them collectively. In fact, 72% of experts are picking the Rams to win on Sunday, according to NFL Pickwatch. But we aren’t.

In what will be a test of the defenses, the 49ers should have this in the bag. They’re the league’s 2nd best rated defense, having allowed the least amount of total offensive yards (1030), passing yards (703) AND rank second for rushing yards allowed (327). With shakey play from Jared Goff, Todd Gurley being forced to sit with a quad contusion, and Aqib Talib dealing with a rib injury, really puts the pressure on. Goff has thrown an average of 1.4 interceptions a game, and the offensive line has allowed 1.6 sacks through 5 matchups.

With the Rams 25th ranked defense, we think Kyle Shanahan and this run first 49ers offense (averaging 200 yards a game, leading the league) gets it started early being able to exploit them with their outside zone rushing attack, allowing them to force the Rams to throw, leading to some turnovers to seal this victory on the road. Take the 9ers with the under.