NFL TNF - Analysis and Bet Predictions

So far this season we are 7-11 -4.74, with average odds of 2.312. Props have been killing us, going 1-5 -6.02u RIP. Outside of that we're 2-2 for totals, 3-3 ATS, and 1-1 straight up.

This month the plusEV Sports team is 28-29-3 (15 pending), 49.12% WR, +2.07u, 2.57% ROI and average odds of 2.35. For all our picks, join our growing community on discord!

Now let's dive into our analysis and predictions for tonight's match up where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Carolina Panthers.

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Last week, the Bucs had 2 TDs overturned, with another 3 on the side of the Niners. Jameis Winston struggled without his key WR Adam Humphries and will need to establish chemistry elsewhere, and fast. He is in a make or break season in his career as a Buc, which has already been questionable - see last season with the Fitzpatrick/Winston bench shuffle. Winston needs to keep the ball out of defenders hands, to avoid another 3 int game with 2 of them being pick 6’s.

Although Winston has been a very inconsistent QB, history shows that he’s capable of the bounce back. Let’s look at footballoutsiders.com stat DYAR, which “gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage”. In his 5 worst starts, he went from 0-5 to an impressive 4-1, with an improvement in DYAR by about ~100. While I can’t say he’ll continue to improve, I can confidently say he should bounce back tonight.

McCaffrey went absolutely nuts against the Rams and is obviously the key player in this offense. He rocked 19 carriers for 128 yards, 2 TDs on the ground and 10 receptions for 81 yards in the air. Behind him was D.J. Moore, with 7-76, then a giant cliff, with Olsen going 4-36. McCaffrey was on the field for 100% of the game. I get that this guy is an absolute beast, but that’s a lot of running, catching, hits, and time played for a RB. Given that we’re looking at a very short week, we will have to see how he holds up.

Cam Newton struggled to move the ball downfield, with his longest completion only 17 yards (worst in the league) and throwing 0 TDs. Trubisky and Roethlisberger were the only other two QBs to miss a single TD. This draws questions about Newton, given the shoulder injury that held back him during the 2018 season. Couple that with the mid-foot sprain he suffered during the preseason which left the chances for him to start against the Rams in question. Newton, who is known for his aggressive run style, also only had 3 carries for -2 yards.

The Bucs new 3-4 defense found some success, finishing with 1 sack, 1 int, 1 fumble rec, and a pick 6. The will lean heavily on inside tackles, Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea to help prevent the Panthers run game. They managed to keep the 49ers to an impressive 3.1 average per rush attempt, allowing only 98 yards on 32 attempts, and 0 TDs.

While the Panthers kept Goff under a 69 passer rating, most of that was self-induced. Had he not missed some easy passes downfield, this game would’ve looked more like a blowout. Last week, the Panthers defense also gave up an astounding 166 yards on the ground and 2 TDs, 1 of only 5 teams in the league to give up 2+ TDs.

With question marks on both sides of the ball and a TNF division match up on a short week, there is no way the Bucs should be such big dogs. Take the TD for anything > 1.8 and the ML for anything > 3.25. I think this goes over but the rest of the plusEV team is leaning under, so we’re skipping the total for tonight, although I will be taking a teaser on the Bucs and the over.

TNF Picks

• Tampa Bay Bucs ML @ 3.55 > 3.25 [0.5u] on Bovada

• Tampa Bay Bucs +7 @ 1.877 > 1.87 [1.15u] on Fairlay

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Early Sunday Bets

• 1st Quarter: New England Patriots -4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins @ 1.96 > 1.96 [2u] on Nitrogen

• Seattle Seahawks ML vs. Pittsburgh Steelers @ 2.65 > 2.65 [1u] on Nitrogen

• Minnesota Vikings ML vs. Green Bay Packers @ 2.37 > 2.35 [1u] on Nitrogen

BOL and stay disciplined 🍀