Preseason Week 3 Predictions - Saturday 8/24/2019 Tips and Bets
- Andy Jung
- Aug 24, 2019
- 2 min read
Been on stream the past few days working hard building solid data sources for the NFL season. Once I have my data set built, I will formally schedule a stream to talk through that process. You can usually find me on around 9-10pm EST, I don't have a solid schedule set ATM due to IRL etc. Keep an eye on Twitter or throw me a follow on Twitch for exact times.
My primary focus is the only constants we have in Football, given the sample size of a regular season it makes it hard to analyze otherwise. I am looking at stadium types, surfaces, coaches, and QBs. I also hope to utilize daily fantasy player values as another stat for projections.
Once we get that done, I plan to find +EV bets, where my implied probability is > than the books. Beating them by even a few cents is the difference between +- long-term profitability. We don't need to pick winners, but if we think a team wins 45% of the time and the book is giving them 35% odds, we bet that 10/10 times. This would result in long-term winnings. For this reason, you'll find the odds I took the bet on, the book I used, and the minimum odds required for this bet to still be considered +EV. I'll be capping spreads and totals too and will be seeking a unique edge with our line setting.
I have a few plays based on basic reads of my current data set. We all know this is the dress rehearsal but it is still preseason to tread extremely lightly.
You can find me on Twitter (@plusEV_azndy) or pop into our discord and chat!
As always, BOL and stay disciplined 🍀
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Preseason Week 3 - Saturday Edge Bets
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