Week 11 NFL Betting Edge: Steelers v. Browns

Steelers (5-4) v. Browns (3-6)

Football Record: 46-30 37.23895u Profit (38.45% ROI)

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

Hard to believe that we are already at Week 11. Like, think about it, 11 weeks of really awesome football (as well as mediocre, and really awful football) has already passed us by. I’ve been told that time flies when you’re having fun, and I guess it’s still true. (Who exactly is “they’re” here? Sentence structure is also a bit awkward. Maybe say like “I guess it’s still true” or “I must still be having fun”.. Idk. “they’re” seems weird cuz ur more focusing on the “time flies” part. I just blinked, and more than half the season is in the books. Which brings us to tomorrow’s matchup, a #TNF Tilt, a game with playoff ramifications for both teams. The Steelers are 4-2 since placing Ben Roethlisberger on the IR and acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick, and the Browns...are, well...the Browns.

From @MichaelRyanRuiz on Twitter

Both are coming off big wins, although both were rather close, against the Rams and Bills respectively. Now they’re facing off on a short week in the Dog Pound. The Steelers are the 3 point dogs in this one, with an expected over/under of 40.5 points. According to Oddsshark, the Steelers: 5-3-1 ATS, whereas the are Browns: 2-6-1 ATS on the season. 

Let's cut through the noise: the Browns are bad. Like, they’re the present that Adam Sandler leaves on the Old Man’s porch in Billy Madison -- lit on fire, and because your homestead is threatened with being burned down, you stamp out the flames only to find poop all over your shoes. Baker Mayfield has thrown more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (9) on the season. Reunited college teammates Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham are the 18th and 19th ranked receivers on the year (I was actually shocked when found this out, thought they were much lower). The only bright spot in the offense is Nick Chubb, who is quickly demonstrating that he is a superstar no matter what the offensive line gives him, ranking 3rd on the season with 919 rushing yards, and second on yards per rush. I guess you could include Kareem Hunt as a possible benefit, but it remains to be seen with the team’s inconsistent play.

The Steelers aren’t all that much better under Mason Rudolph The Red Nosed Quarterback,

either. He’s at best a game manager, being hesitant to throw the ball (averaging just 6.6 yards per pass attempt), and crashed the fantasy stocks of Juju while he’s under center. Rudolph should perform better with James Connor returning from injury, with a Browns defense ranking in the bottom 10, having 1214 rushing yards (4.9 per rush attempt) and 8 touchdowns on the season. But the offense isn’t really worth mentioning, it’s really the defense making this team a playoff contender, specifically Minkah Fitzpatrick, because wow. We’re looking at a defensive player of the year contender here. The guy is a difference maker. 

I really don’t even have to type more, because the tweets really demonstrate all I am trying to say. The Steelers defense will be X-Factor, and with a Browns offensive line allowing Baker Mayfield to be sacked 25 times this season (7th most in the league), and Baker having tossed the league's second most interceptions, you can read between the lines.

Some player props to keep an eye out for:

- Baker interceptions

- Catches by Kareem Hunt

- Juju Smith-Schuster under 75 receiving yards (or fewer)

- Baker Mayfield throwing under 275 passing yards.

Take the moneyline for the Steelers with confidence. Don’t put it on Mason Rudolph’s arm, more on Minkah Fitzpatrick’s defensive play. Ride it to the bank... 

- Good night, and good luck 

@plusEV_MG