Week 12 NFL Value Bets

MG
Nov 24, 2019
6 min read

1:00pm Slate:

Dolphins v. Browns: Dolphins +10.5 [1U]

The question you have to ask yourself is can the Browns move forward following their disastrous finish against the Steelers? The fallout now leaves the defense is full of holes: Myles Garrett’s season is over and Larry Ogunjobi is suspended. To make matters worse, Safety Morgan Burnett is done for the season (Achilles rupture), and Oliver Vernon and Eric Murray are out, too -- in all, three of the Browns’ front four are out and two defensive backs are out.

If you’re banking on the Browns offense for fantasy, or prop betting, they should perform well. I think that Nick Chubb should get back on track with a juicy matchup with a Fins defense giving up 148 yards a game on average, and so should Baker Mayfield and the receiving corps. But, considering the massive gap in the defense, I don’t think that the Browns can win by 10.5 points.

Oddsshark tells us Miami is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games vs clubs with a losing record. Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 road games overall but 3-0 ATS in the past 3. Cleveland is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games following a win. So sure, you can expect at least one Ryan Fitzpatrick YOLO ball interception, or more, but facing a defense riddled with holes, I think they can keep it tight. Take the Dolphins points (also, a good time to remind you all that I backed the Fins over the Colts and you all laughed, so this is me bragging about it).

Prop Bets:

Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown
Odell Beckham anytime touchdown
Allen Hurns anytime touchdown (<- this is juicy)
Baker Mayfield interceptions
Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions

Buccaneers v. Falcons: Falcons -3.5 [1U]

God this is so PlusEV that I want to hammer the Buccaneers moneyline, but Captain Crab Legs has screwed me too many times for me to fall for it again. Combined with the Falcons defense playing out of its mind the past two games, I think this one is a fait accompli. Winston has thrown 6 interceptions and 2 fumbles in the past two games. The Falcons have won the last 5 games against the Buccaneers. Like Jesus man, Dan Quinn should have handed off play calling for the defense a long time ago. They upset the Saints 26-9 as 14-point underdogs and the Carolina Panthers 29-3 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Oddsshark tells us that the Atlanta Falcons are 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. To make matters worse, The Buccaneers are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs their division. The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers’ last 8 games. I am more confident in this pick than I have ever been, ride the Falcons defense to a pay day.

Prop bets:

Jameis Winston Interceptions
Jameis Winson Sacks
Defensive Anytime Touchdowns

Seahawks v. Eagles: Seahawks ML [1U]

I am honestly scratching my head with this game. You look at the line, cause go home, bookies, you’re drunk. The Seahawks, after playing two weeks ago and upsetting the 49ers in a thriller in overtime are 1+ underdogs heading into this. Huh?

Oddsshark Fast Facts:

Seattle is 5-0 on the road and the Eagles are just 3-2 at home.
The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
The Eagles are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 games vs the Seahawks (avg. losing margin: 13.0).

I am not sure what the book is seeing that I am missing. Russell Wilson is playing MVP level ball right now -- would probably be the lock for him if it weren’t for Lamar Jackson wasn’t playing like a 12 year old was able to make his ideal player in Madden but control him in real life. The Eagles meanwhile are without Nelson Agholor. Alshon Jeffery is looking ready for the retirement home and Jordan Howard is Jordan Howard. Basically, the Eagles are lacking the serious weapons they need to go toe-to-toe with this Seahawks squad. Sure, there are concerns that Tyler Lockett might not able to go, (if so, RIP my fantasy team playoff prospects), which puts more of a burden on DK Metcalf, Flash Gordon, Chris Carson, and Jacob Hollister to pick up the slack. But, it’s the Eagles, and their secondary is garbage, so I wouldn’t worry all that much. Above all, remember The Russell Wilson Factor™.

Take the Hawks moneyline to the bank.

Lions v. Redskins: Lions -3.5 [1U]

It is Jeff Driskel SZN, ladies and gentlemen. Yes, you heard that right. Stream him if you’ve got him, cause the Lions are going to go into Washington DC and dominate this atrocious Redskins squad desperate for a win. Though, you and I know the Redskins really shouldn’t try. At this point it’s best to tank for the higher draft pick, as Chase Young would be the best player on the team by a mile.

Some of you might argue that with the Lions getting gashed through the air last week against the Cowboys potentially could yield to the Redskins might finding some success. But that was against Dak Prescott, not Dwayne Haskins. Both defenses overall aren’t great: Redskins ranking 21 and the Lions 27. But where I make the call that the Lions will be able to pick off Haskins as he has thrown at least 1 in his 4 games played, the Lions, having only picked 3 passes off this season, are due. Driskel isn’t Stafford, but given his performance against a better squad in Dallas, I think he easily delivers a road W and covers the spread.

Raiders v. Jets: Jets ML [1U]

Last week I mistakenly didn’t tip the Bengals as +11 dogs to the Raiders, cause they performed better than anyone would have expected, losing by only 7. Against one of the worst defensive units in the league, in a prime matchup tailor made to show that the Raiders are a formidable force in the AFC, they could only muster 17 points. Now, they’re favorites against the Jets, and I don’t see it. History tells us that Oakland has covered five of the last seven meetings but hasn’t won at New York since 1996. Home teams have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams (yes, this is from Oddsshark).

The Jets offensive unit has had a dream string of matchups in recent weeks, having put up 34 points each in the last two games against the Giants and Redskins. I anticipate the Jets success to continue, as the Raiders defensive unit has given up the 3rd most passing touchdowns in league through 10 games (24). Beyond their defense not being able to stop a nosebleed, Oddsshark reports that the Raiders are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road and are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road vs the Jets.

I believe that the Jets continue their streak of success and win this in the Meadowlands.

4:00pm Slate:

Cowboys v. Patriots: Patriots -6.5 [1U]

The Patriots have not looked themselves in recent weeks. Reports came out that they were even considering bringing back Antonio Brown following his release for sexual assault allegations. Phillip Dorsett is likely out, and Mohammed Sanu is hampered with an ankle injury. So is this N’Keal Harry SZN? God, I hope so. But really this is going to be a game where James White can do James White things.

Now, the Cowboys have been good. Really good, in fact. Dak Prescott is a lowkey favorite for MVP, though 3rd behind Wilson and Jackson if I were ranking them. But, how can we not be reminded of the fact that they lost to the Jets and Lions came within a touchdown? To add insult to injury, Oddsshark details that New England is a remarkable 14-3-3 ATS and 19-1 SU in its last 20 games when laying a touchdown or less in Foxborough.

Oddsshark has given some more history, too: the total has gone OVER in 10 of the Cowboys’ last 13 games. The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Cowboys’ last 8 games vs the Patriots. I think overall, turnovers will be the biggest factor in determining the Patriots hitting their points, as in the last three games the Cowboys have given up 4, and Prescott has 9 interceptions on the season. I firmly believe the Patriots defense shines again.

Prop Bets: