Week 13 NFL Betting Edge: Hello Darkness My Old Friend, Here I Am Betting On Jameis Winston Again.

MG
Dec 1, 2019
6 min read

NFL Week 13 Value Bets

Welcome back everyone! I hope you all enjoyed your Thanksgiving, political arguments over some of the year’s best food with distant relatives, and Black Friday shopping deals where you rush into a store super early in the morning, sleep deprived and likely hungover, to fight to the death over the crappy made TV that’s on sale for $150. Sorry, Black Friday brings up troubling memories of working in retail, it’s legit fear inducing thinking about going out to any store and fighting for gifts with fellow Americans. Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled programming -- Thursday was a great day for the @PlusEV_Sports team: we went 2-1 on the day, with the Bills and Falcons both covering (and Bills winning in Dallas!) and a hearty congratulations, and a subtle damn you, to David Blough.

Let’s get into it:

1:00pm Slate:

Titans at Colts

My Pick: Titans ML

Tennessee Titans ML @ 1.99 (1.89+) [1u] on Bookmaker

Imagine that you were dropped into this week and were told that out of the two quarterbacks playing this weekend, one of them has 10 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, is completing 72.1

percent of his passes and a QB rating of 111.4 and he’s 4-1 as the starter. What would your gut say to you? Brissett or Mariota?

Both answers are wrong: it’s Ryan Tannehill. Ryan freakin’ Tannehill. You guys are smart, you can see where I am going with this. But, two more stats, if you’ll indulge me:

- Between Zeke Elliott and Ryan Tannehill who has more 20+ yard runs on the season?

Tannehill: 3 - Zeke: 1

From @SportsSturm

- Since Ryan Tannehill became starter, here's a list of quarterbacks (minimum four games

played) who have averaged more fantasy points per game: 1. Lamar Jackson

From @LateRoundQB

So, I am calling it now: take the Titans moneyline. I’ll leave you with a couple of Oddsshark notes for you all to consider as to why I am #FullSending this, and leaning the under:

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Titans’ last 14 road games vs the Colts.
The Colts are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games after consecutive ATS wins.
The Titans are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 games.

Prop Bet Considerations:

AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown
Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown (<- 4.0 odds, depending on the book)
Ryan Tannehill +28 Rushing Yards

Jets at Bengals

My Pick: Jets -3

New York Jets -3 @ 1.9 (1.85+) [1u] on Betonline

I feel like I’ve backed the Jets a LOT over the past few weeks, and reviewing their schedule how could you not? They’re on fire right now. In fact, they’ve scored 34 points in each of the last three games against the Raiders, Washington, and the Giants. Hard to believe that they were actually -3.5 dogs to the Raiders, too. Now, they get the #TankForTua (though Borrow, if I had my choice) Bengals. Who, if you didn’t know, have recently announced that they’re turning back to the Red Rocket in Andy Dalton.

That doesn’t change my pick -- in fact, if you think about these facts from Cincinnatti.com: “Dalton started the first eight games of the season. He passed for 2,252 yards threw nine touchdowns and tossed eight interceptions. In those eight losses, the quarterback had a career-worst 60.4 completion percentage and his 79.2 passer rating was also at an all-time low,” they’re trying to tank. By starting Dalton, they’re trying to lock up the first overall pick in April 2020 and let the league know they should be taken out behind the shed and shot.

From Oddsshark:

New York is 3-15 SU in its last 18 road games.
New York is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games vs. AFC opponents.
Cincinnati is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.

This is another game that you can back Darnold and the Jets with confidence. The Bengals passing defense is in the middle of the pack, though I don’t foresee this being much of an issue for a surging Darnold. Where you should take note is the Bengals rushing defense - where are they in the rankings? Dead last. So start Lev Bell if you’ve got him. Anticipate the Jets’ defense to feast on Dalton and hold Mixon in check (as they are the league’s best rush defense) and definitively cover.

Prop Bet Considerations:

Crowder/Anderson Anytime Touchdowns
Ryan Griffin Anytime Touchdown
Le'Veon Bell +72 Rushing Yards
Tyler Boyd Anytime Touchdowns

Buccaneers at Jaguars

My Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ 1.88 (1.79+) [1u] on Betonline

Week in and week out, I promise myself that I am swearing off betting Captain Crab Legs

and the Buccaneers entirely. Yet, here we are: Hello Darkness My Old Friend, Here I Am Betting On Jameis Winston Again. When you think about it, Winston is really the NFL’s Jekyll and Hyde quarterback, right? Against the Falcons last week he was throwing absolute dimes one quarter, and tossing picks in others. It’s frustrating, but that’s life with Winston under center. Assuming that Nick Foles comes out of his shell, as he very much has not in the previous two games starting, this very well could be a shootout. As Oddsshark reports, the last 9 games with the Buccaneers have gone over (most books between 47-48 points, as of this posting).

In truth, the Jaguars don’t look the same on defense since Jalen Ramsey left town. I’d fire up Godwin and Evans with confidence, and frankly, given how capital B bad the Jaguars rush defense is (ranked 29th on the season) I am calling it Ronald Jones SZN. Tomorrow will be his coming out party, and if they play it right, should minimize the chances that Winston turns into Mr. Hyde and throws a couple of YOLO picks.

On the other side of the ball, yikes man. Foles is not the MVP Super Bowl Champion winner that the Jags were hoping for. He should, in theory, rebound this week, though with the high winds being forecast this very well could be an under-affair with a lot of dump off passes. I am not confident in Fournette being able to get much going on the ground, as the Buccaneers defense is legit the reincarnation of the Steel Curtain when it concerns stopping running backs. In fact, they average 68.0 rushing yards per game so far this season. Given these factors, I think the Bucs win and cover.

Oddsshark Notes:

Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
The OVER is 9-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 9 games.
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite.

Prop Bet Considerations:

Chris Conley Anytime Touchdown (please Lord, have him deliver, I need this to make the fantasy playoffs cause I stupidly sat Golladay and Julio was out)
Ronald Jones Anytime Touchdown
Ronald Jones +59 Rushing Yards
Chris Conley +5 receptions

49ers at Ravens

My Pick: Ravens -5.5

Ravens -5.5 @ 1.86 (1.79+) [1U] on Betonline

WHY NFL, WHY? Why couldn’t you flex this to a Sunday night game? Yeah, Patriots facing the Texans in Houston will certainly be a good one, but guys. Come on. This is the game of the week. The fact this is lumped into the other 1:00pm games is borderline offensive to NFL fans. I genuinely think that this could be a Super Bowl preview with the way both teams are playing. Top offense against top defense.

I initially wrote this blog with the suggestion that you bet this game live, or straight up avoid it. But then I came across this gem from the San Francisco Chronicle: “Consider: In two games against Arizona’s Kyler Murray and another against Seattle’s Russell Wilson, the 49ers allowed 26 points per game, a 71.4 completion percentage, a 103.9 passer rating and 144 QB rushing yards. In their other eight games, in which QBs averaged 5.4 rushing yards, they allowed 10.6 points per game, a 55.6 completion percentage and a 51.9 passer rating.” It’s like the 49ers defense are two completely different units when facing dual threat quarterbacks, and I will take those odds.

Some Oddsshark notes:

The Baltimore Ravens are 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS over their last seven games, winning those games by an average margin of 21.3 points per game.
Meanwhile, San Francisco is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road so far this season.
The 49ers are 2-12 SU and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs teams with winning records.
The Ravens are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the 49ers’ last 5 games.

I firmly believe that the Ravens keep rocking and rolling and even against this legit defense (strikingly, Oddsshark agrees with me). You are probably on the fence about it, but remember what the Ravens did against the Patriots. I think that’s what happens again, here. Lamar Jackson cements himself as the MVP in this game.

Prop Bet Considerations:

Deeboo Samuel Anytime Touchdowns
Malcolm Brown Anytime Touchdowns/5+ Receptions
Willie Snead Anytime Touchdowns
Lamar Jackson +77 Rushing Yards
Emmanuel Sanders +5 Receptions

Final thoughts: As we approach 1:00pm, keep an eye out on the Browns spread and whether Kyler Murray will suit up for the Cardinals. I have a sense that, as we approach kickoff, some will take the Steelers dogs being at home and the line should move from -2 to -1.

As for the Cardinals, Murray popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury. According to beat reporters, he’s a game time decision. If he sits, Brett Hundley would start, and the entire Cardinals offense takes a massive step back, and my money immediately goes on whatever the most favorable line the books come out with for the Rams.

Good night, and good luck!

Mike G. | www.plusevsports.com