Will Lightning strike tonight?

The hottest team in the NHL travels to face off against a Pittsburgh squad that looks to bounce back after a stomp by the Devils. Let's take a deeper dive into the model and this match up.

Statistically, both teams are actually quite even. Tampa is 2-2 away and Pittsburgh is 2-2 at home this month. They are also both 7-3 overall in their past 10 games in the respective venues. No advantage.

As far as rest goes, the Lightning are 34-10 when given at least 1 day off and the Penguins are 14-14 after 1 days rest. Advantage Lightning.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is playing just around the average with a 0.75% delta save percentage while Matt Murray lackluster sitting at -2.19%. The models danger score gives the TB a slight advantage, converting their medium danger shots at a much higher rate than Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh can keep the pressure up, they could find success but medium or low danger shots will surely be stopped by Vasilevskiy. Slight Advantage Lightning.

The model has this capped at 53.39% to 46.61%, with the Lightning having the edge. Betonline has the best odds right now and is pretty close to that, setting their line at 53.19% to 49.50%. We'll have to wait on movement to see if their is a play but for now it's a skip.

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Regulation/OT

While I haven't had time to convert this into odds yet, I figured I'd start sharing this info to use at your discretion. Tampa is winning 68.75% of their games in regulation when away and Pittsburgh taking 55% at home. Tampa has an edge in OT, taking 75% versus 50%.

-1.5 spread

Tampa has covered in 8 matches away and Pittsburgh has suffered 8 losses at home, although Pittsburgh has also been able to cover the spread 10 times and Tampa has only failed to cover 3 times on the road.

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What are you leaning tonight? Let me know in the comments and stay tuned for potential picks for the night!

-Andy